Thursday, September 28, 2006
Monday, September 25, 2006
This page will continue to host the trend pages, national maps and overviews until everything can be moved.
Sunday, September 24, 2006
My name is J. Ryan McNelis, I've recently been added to the group of people managing this site, and I'm honored to be here. In very short time, I hope to be helping out very constructively to ensure Tom is managing the best run election prediction site on the web.
In the meantime, I'd like to take a short moment for a small introduction, and possibly a little political commentary. I'm 27 years old, from Rhode Island with a BA in Biology and a Masters in Public Administration. I've been addicted to American politics since Newt's 1994 takeover of Congress. I'm a moderate that leans Democrat, occassionally more my liberal views will reveal themselves, but above all, I'm rational...and FULLY believe neither the Dems or the GOP has ALL the answers. (My posted views do not reflect Election Predictions views.)
Anyway, in a short response to Karen Blanton, on electoral fraud.
Electoral fraud is an age old tradition in American politics stretching ALL the way back to Washington himself. There are MANY ways to fix an election, and both sides are doing it EVERY year and for EVERY election.
"Legal" means include gerrymandering, creating new or excessive poll rules (forms of ID needed, etc), and an ESPECIALLY troublesome one of late...changing the sensitivity of polling machines. Whether a human or a computer...someone/thing has to count those votes. Making them count "chads" or neglect "chads" can SEVERELY influence poll results, either by illegally disenfranchising thousands or by allowing illegal votes to count.
"Illegal" means include having dead people vote (happens EVERYWHERE) and kicking people off voting rolls, as done in Florida's wide net sweep to kick felons off voting rolls, which nabbed many legal voters as well as felons.
But we should ALL vote anyway. Most of the time (98% or more) these schemes do not change the results enough to change the election. For these methods can only tip a result by about a point or so. In the end, yes Gore did win Florida....but to be fair, Kennedy stole the 1960 election from Nixon with the help of a Daley political machine of Chicago.
In the end, such electoral fraud cancels each other out.
So the imperfect system that our system is, runs well enough to still serve Democracy well.
Update (Tom): New Mexico and New York are now on the new site. NY-19 drops off the competitive list.
Update: Nebraska, Nevada, and New Hampshire have been moved over. Three races have dropped off the competitive list: MN-02, NH-01, and NH-02.
Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, and Montana are now on the new page.
Saturday, September 23, 2006
Update (Tom): Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, and Louisiana are now moved to the new page.
Not much today, except I have a little bit of my own news. Inspired by Tom, I bought my own website (I'm 23, well past "minor" age). I will have all my state predictions moved to the new site by the end of September, as well as some of my other stuff on my two Blogger sites (general politics and looking to 2008). Everything should be moved to the new site by early October. My Blogger sites will be up for the rest of the 2006 election, and afterwards will become blank except to redirect visitors to my new site, http://californianintexas.us.
Florida is now up on the new page. Also, Florida's 9th District race drops off the competitive list.
Friday, September 22, 2006
Note: All state pages transferred to the new site have also been updated!
While this site is in the process of moving, why don't you check out the Weekly Projection Update over at Election Projection. Scott runs a great site and uses formulas to predict the outcomes of races. While you're there, why not sign up for his premium content? You can sign up for as little as $.01 it seems, though I am sure $5 is more an acceptable amount.
Update: Arkansas and California are now linked to the new site. I am on a roll here! Hopefully I will complete the state page movement over the weekend. Also, can anyone explain to me how to make a picture that has multiple links in it? I need to put links onto the national overview maps. Thank you!!
I have transferred the first three state pages to the new site. There is a new state overview section on each of the pages. I will continue moving the state pages to that site tonight. If this is your first time here today, scroll down to see the daily polling posted by Sara.
|Arkansas District 2||9/20||Snyder 56|
|Colorado District 4||9/20||Musgrave 46|
|Kansas District 4||9/20||Tiahrt 63|
|Nevada Governor||9/20||Gibbons 49|
|Nevada Senate||9/20||Ensign 50|
|New Mexico District 1||9/20||Wilson 51|
|Ohio Governor||9/20||Strickland 56|
|Ohio Senate||Survey USA||Brown 52|
|Pennsylvania Governor||9/20||Rendell 56|
|Pennsylvania Senate||Rasmussen||Casey 49|
|Pennsylvania District 8||Grove Insight (D)||Fitzpatrick 43|
|Vermont Senate||Research 2000||Sanders 58|
Thursday, September 21, 2006
Wednesday and Thursday Polling
Wednesday, September 20, 2006
Unfortunately, I am extremely busy over the next few days. I will not be able to post as often, and daily polling may or may not be up tomorrow and Friday. Additionally, I am having tons of trouble trying to start the new website. I am unable it seems to start with a blank page and not a 'customizable' template. As a result, I cannot figure out how to put advertising space or projection totals on the sidebar. Anyone know a good blog hosting service I can transfer the domain to?
I am currently updating the state pages of Massachusetts and Washington following the primaries.
Maryland: Finally, Some Polls
KY-04: New Poll
Daily polling will be up later, along with any needed race rating changes.
Tuesday, September 19, 2006
Election Predictions is Moving!
Thursday Polling On A Tuesday...
The state pages for these races have been updated. I'll see you guys in a week or so. Take care!
Retain Majority: One Shifts
WI-08: This shifts to a VERY WEAK RETENTION for the GOP.
Daily polling will be up later.
Monday, September 18, 2006
Republican House Incumbents: Good News
Here are three House polls released today in supposedly competitive Republican districts:
I highly doubt that Weldon is winning by such a large margin in Pennsylvania's 7th District. Other polls have shown them virtually tied, and a Republican polling firm won't change that rating in my mind. However, the New Hampshire polls are of note.
NH-02: This race moves to a WEAK RETENTION for the Republicans.
Update: I know I posted this over the weekend, but the bulk of this sites traffic occurs over the course of the week. Don't worry, this is the last time you will have to read this phooey:
I really want to be able to move this site to its own domain name this year. Network Solutions offers the entire hosting package for $26.94 to register and host http://www.electionpredictions.us/. In order to make this site sustainable, I would need to offer advertising spots in order to generate $14.95 a month after the initial set up fee. I think that is quite doable. However, because I am still a minor, (I will be 18 before Election Day), I have no way to pay for the site and legally am not allowed to put up advertising and generate income until mid-October. (I can't even set up a PayPal to accept donations to fund the move.) Just letting readers know the situation. If someone wants to buy the domain for $26.94 and transfer it to us here at Election Predictions, I will reimburse you after the election! If you would like to help out you can email me at firstname.lastname@example.org. What a unique domain would bring:
Bullets that actually appear on the page!
Montana: Bluer By The Day?
|Culver 44%, Nussle 44%|
|Braley 44%, Whalen 37%|
|Hatch 42%, Pawlenty 42%|
|Brown 47%, DeWine 41%|
|Carcieri 47%, Fogarty 45%|
Sunday, September 17, 2006
Election Predictions moving to its own site?
I really want to be able to move this site to its own domain name this year. Network Solutions offers the entire hosting package for $26.94 to register and host www.electionpredictions.us. In order to make this site sustainable, I would need to offer advertising spots in order to generate $14.95 a month after the initial set up fee. I think that is quite doable. However, because I am still a minor, (I will be 18 before Election Day), I have no way to pay for the site and legally am not allowed to put up advertising and generate income until mid-October. Therefore, I will probably have to wait until the next election cycle to move to a unique domain for Election Predictions. (I can't even set up a PayPal to accept donations to fund the move.) Just letting readers know the situation. I don't know if there is any way to get around this situation, unless someone wants to buy the domain for $26.94 and transfer it to us here at Election Predictions! Once this site starts generating revenue and I am old enough to open a PayPal account, I can easily reimburse you. Anyway, I am integrating polls still from this month. Sara is doing money tables, and they look really nice.
Update: I forgot to mention the benefits of a unique domain:
- Nicer tables
- Interactive maps
- Better presentation
- More features!
- Bullets that actually appear on the page!
Saturday, September 16, 2006
UPDATE (2:50 AM): Just finished updating Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, and Florida with the money tables. Look for all state pages to be updated by Sunday night or Monday.
UPDATE II (11:12 AM): Every state (with Senate and/or competitive House races) through Maryland has tables.
Saturday Polling (or lack thereof)
UPDATE (8:51 PM): With no new polls to work with, that at least frees up some time for me to incorporate the money tables into the Senate and House races.
Friday, September 15, 2006
|Nelson 53%, Harris 38%|
|Baldacci 42%, Woodcock 41%|
|Granholm 50%, DeVos 42%|
|Stabenow 53%, Bouchard 34%|
|Bredesen 63%, Bryson 30%|
|Perry 33%, Strayhorn 22%,|
Bell 18%, Friedman 16%
|Douglas 59%, Parker 32%|
|Sanders 55%, Tarrant 40%|
|Welsh 48%, Rainville 45%|
Colorado Governor's Race Coming Clearer...
I've got a quick question for the EP readership that I posed at my site:
If the Democrats take control of Congress in November, do you think any Republicans will switch parties to stay in the majority a la Ben Nighthorse Campbell in 1994? If so, which ones will make the jump?
Thursday, September 14, 2006
Earlier today, Brian and I posted four House polls from Indiana. Additionally, I updated the race ratings for 12 races. Two moved to the Democrats while one moved to the Republicans. Overall, 10 moved in favor of the Democrats versus 2 to the Republicans. I will try and update some races every day. I really want to pick up where some of election sites went premium left off. My goal is to provide a free alternative that is just as accurate and just as informative. If you would like to help out by linking here, please do so. Consider it a donation to this site. Here is the daily polling:
cruising getting hammered in Indiana.
Another Democratic Pickup In Indiana?
The latest poll in one of the three potential blue pickups in Indiana...