Election Predictions

Election predictions for all national races in the United States, as well as governor election predictions. Check back daily for updates.

Sunday, January 22, 2006

Great Lakes Regional Trend

Great Lakes states are: Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Ohio. I am not including Indiana is this region because politically it fits more with Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia, what I would call the Appalachian region. Every one of the Great Lakes states is moving leftward, especially Ohio. Ohio is the only state that has consistently voted Republican since the 1980s, with the exception of Bill Clinton. This region's Democratic base is mostly unionized workers. Detroit, home of the Big Three, is the center of this union region. Increasingly, free trade with countries like China and Japan have been spawning job losses in this largely manufacturing region, built up on the great trade opportunities the Great Lakes afford. This leads the population of the area to be more protectionist and less pro-free trade. Free trade incarnate is the Republican party. This economic 'libertarianism', while possibly benefiting society as a whole, has been felt extensively throught the region. Now, Democrats aren't necessarily protectionist, but their opposition to pacts like CAFTA and NAFTA and the free trade agreement with China due to unfair labor practices and regulation have drawn support from people in these states. The boom in immigrants hasn't affected this region nearly as much as other regions of the country. In Ohio moreso than the other regions, social issues are not any part of the reason for the leftward trend. Ohio is the only state in the country with an enforceable ban on an abortion procedure, and voters there recently approved a ban on gay marriage. In Ohio, the Democrats could hurt partisan shifts by stressing social liberties that Ohioans don't have an affinity for. The other states in the region are all more socially liberal than Ohio, and the 'religious right' will not be able to substantially slow the leftward movement. Economic populism is the main cause of the leftward shift, along with environmentalism, and, to some extent, social issues in Minnesota, Michigan, and Illinois. For the Republicans to start winning these states over, the party needs to take a look at its economic platform. While conservatives dominate the government right now, they should take notice that more states are moving leftward than rightward, and those leftward moving states are the ones that will yield significant electoral power as population trends shape the face of the country.

Thursday, January 19, 2006

West Coast Regional Trend

The West Coast states are, you guessed it, California, Oregon, and Washington. All three states are continuing their leftward trend. California's quick leftward movement can be attributed to the large influx of minorities to the state. Furthermore, almost all population growth in California has been around the major cities. These areas are heavily trending to the Democrats. Maybe this is because all the liberals are flocking to California, but that is probably just Republican hope. In fact, Californian Republicans are more fiscally conservative than socially, aka Reagan Democrats. The Republican party's increasing emphasis on social issues has swung these voters towards the Democratic side. An influence on social values could be partially attributed to Hollywood and it's liberal-ness. Up and down the West Coast, however, the trend towards the Democrats cannot be explained by an influx of minorities and Hollywood. The biggest influence on trend has been the environmental movement. These three western states have been the most ambitious towards achieving environmental goals, especially California and Washington. Sustainable development is all the rage in the Northwest, and the Bush administration's, and other Republicans, staunch opposition to any environmental laws that impede development has pushed these voters away from them. The conservative argument would be that you are infringing on the rights of the people by making these laws. However, West Coast residents are rebuking them by saying: we should have the right to be free from sprawl, excessive air pollution, and have the right to have a clean environment that benefits the economy, our health, peace of mind, tourism, and future generations. Republicans that have been elected recently on the West Coast, if you notice, have been more pro-environment than the average Republican. As the Democratic party continues to make the environment an important issue, more West Coast voters will leave the Republican party. I don't see the Republicans ever taking back these three states, unless they clean up their environmental act. They could also stop hammering social issues. For example, Oregon has an assisted suicide law that was just ruled as trumping federal law. While you may not agree with assisted suicide, you can evidence from that the mindset of West Coaster's in terms of social issues. These states also have some of the most abortion friendly medical laws. Out of California's 36 Republican counties, 17 of them are trending Democrat. Out of California's 22 Democratic counties, only 4 of them are trending Republican. Out of Oregon's 27 GOP counties, 23 are trending Democrat. Not one of its 8 Democratic counties are moving rightward. Finally, out of Washington's 28 Republican counties, 25 are trending Democrat. One out of it's 13 Democratic counties are moving rightward. This region is a safe haven for Democrats and will only grow safer.

Tuesday, January 17, 2006

Southwest Regional Trend

Southwestern states are: Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. Based on voting patterns since 1992, 2 of these states are within the margin for trending, one is trending Republican and one is trending Democrat. However, if you compare data going from the 2000 election to the 2004 election, Texas and New Mexico are trending slightly to the Democrats while Arizona is slighting trending rightward. Nevada is clearly trending towards the Democrats in both analysis, and Nevada is the fastest leftward moving state out of the current red states. All of these states are seeing booming minority, specifically Hispanic, population increases. These voters are starting to move leftward, especially second and third generation immigrants that aren't as religious as the first generation. Texas is the most red state in terms of population, and it is seeing more of its counties trending towards the Democrats than towards the Republicans. 12 out of Nevada's 16 counties are moving leftward at a fairly quick pace. As the population of Hispanic voters continues to increase, these Southwestern states will continue their trend. The GOP is beating itself on the head in this region because of its anti-immigrant tones. The Republican party will continue to alienate voters who may be more socially inclined to side with their party by taking the hard-core anti-immigrant stance to appease its other base. I think the Republican party has grown to large to appease all its constituent bases, and the Southwest will continue to trend Democratically, especially if the Democrats continue their move to a more Populist platform.

Sunday, January 01, 2006

House Projections Map

House Projections Map

Governor Projections Map

Governor Projections Map

Senate Projections Map

Senate Projections Map

National Overview - House

Note: Name listed next to the seat is the Incumbent, not the projected winner.

Weak Retention - Total: 12

  • J.D. Hayworth, Arizona District 5
  • No Incumbent, Florida District 13
  • Ron Lewis, Kentucky District 2
  • Anne Northup, Kentucky District 3
  • Tim Walz, Minnesota District 1
  • Michael Ferguson, New Jersey District 7
  • John Sweeney, New York District 20
  • Randy Kuhl, New York District 29
  • No Incumbent, Nevada District 2
  • Mike Fitzpatrick, Pennsylvania District 8
  • Henry Bonilla, Texas District 23
  • Barbara Cubin, Wyoming AL District

Very Weak Retention - Total: 15

  • Richard Pombo, California District 11
  • Mariyln Musgrave, Colorado District 4
  • Christopher Shays, Connecticut District 4
  • Nancy Johnson, Connecticut District 5
  • Clay Shaw, Florida District 22
  • No Incumbent, Illinois District 6
  • No Incumbent, Minnesota District 6
  • Heather Wilson, New Mexico District 1
  • Robin Hayes, North Carolina District 8
  • Steve Chabot, Ohio District 1
  • Deborah Pryce, Ohio District 15
  • Curt Weldon, Pennsylvania District 7
  • Don Sherwood, Pennsylvania District 10
  • Dave Reichert, Washington District 8
  • No Incumbent, Wisconsin District 8


Weak Retention - Total: 3

  • John Salazar, Colorado District 3
  • Leonard Boswell, Iowa District 3
  • Charlie Melancon, Louisiana District 3

Very Weak Retention - Total: 4

  • Jim Marshall, Georgia District 8
  • John Barrows, Georgia District 12
  • Melissa Bean, Illinois District 8
  • Chet Edwards, Texas District 17

Very Weak Gain - Total: 8

  • No Incumbent, Colorado District 7
  • Rob Simmons, Connecticut District 2
  • Geoff Davis, Kentucky District 4
  • No Incumbent, New York District 24
  • Charles Taylor, North Carolina District 11
  • Robert Ney, Ohio District 18
  • Jim Gerlach, Pennsylvania District 6
  • Thelma Drake, Virginia District 2

Weak Gain - Total: 7

  • No Incumbent, Arizona District 8
  • Chris Chocola, Indiana District 2
  • John Hostettler, Indiana District 8
  • Mike Sodrel, Indiana District 9
  • No Incumbent, Iowa District 1
  • No Incumbent, Texas District 22
  • No Incumbent, Vermont District 1

Northeast Regional Trend

All Northeastern states are quite similiar in political trends. Based on voting patterns since 1992, the Northeast is moving to the Democrats. The Northeast is by far the most liberal region of the country. The most logical explanation for the leftist leanings of the Northeast is the fact that it is the most urban region of the country. This may explain voter's general affinity towards the Democrats. Cities like New York, Philadelphia, Boston, Pittsburgh, Hartford, etc., have large populations in the city and in the surrounding areas which account for most of the population of the Northeast. Many Northeastern states are seeing increasing Hispanic and minority populations. The Northeast rivals the West Coast in terms of concern over the environment. This plays a large part in the election of Republican moderates like Lincoln Chafee. While the Northeast has recently seen a decline in population as a percentage, I believe this trend will reverse. Numerous large Northeastern cities, Philadelphia being the greatest example, are undergoing a revitalization not seen in decades. The appeal of living in the city is increasing, with more people returning to Philadelphia and moving there to start. Once water problems in the Southwest reach critical levels, the Northeast will see a robust increase in population. There is no forseeable trend towards the Republicans anytime soon. While an explanation of the roots of Northeastern ideals would be lengthy and time consuming, there is no doubt that these opinions on issues like abortion are steadfast. Unless the Republican and Democratic parties switch roles, expect the Northeast to continue to move leftward. Just like in the Mid-Atlantic, outlying suburbs of major cities have been voting increasingly Democratic, though suburbs historically have been more favorable to Republicans. Economic populism may be the key in the turn to the Democrats. The Republicans have no chance of coming back in the Northeast. Presidentially, more states are trending Democratic than Republican. Furthermore, no Democratic states are moving rightward. The Republicans will have a tough time winning in the future if the Eastern seaboard continues its leftward lunge.

Mid-Atlantic Regional Trend

North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania constitute the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. New Jersey and Pennsylvania are borderline Northeast and Midatlantic. All of these states are trending Democrat. This region, along with the Northeast, is growing more socially liberal. While many new Democrats are still fairly moderate economically and socially, the GOP is taking an increasingly socially conservative stance and has not been staying true to its economically conservative roots. Northern Virginia is moving heavily to the Democrats, while western North Carolina is moving to the Democrats (even though it is still staunchly conservative). The suburbs around the major cities on the East coast have been trending Democratic lately, contrary to the general Republican-ness of outlying suburbs. Virginia ranks 3rd among Republican states in terms of movement to the Democrats after Nevada and Colorado. North Carolina ranks 8th. The main shift in political attitudes here has been towards Populist beliefs. Increasingly, the Democrats have been the more populist party in the area. The Democrats here are more conservative socially than in the Northeast, and their economic beliefs are more in tune with voters here. The Republicans will continue to lose this region unless they start becoming a more Populist party, rather than being conservative.

National Overview - Senate

Note: Name listed next to the seat is the Incumbent, not the projected winner.
Solid Retention - Total: 7
  • Dick Lugar, Indiana
  • Olympia Snowe, Maine
  • Trent Lott, Mississippi
  • John Ensign, Nevada
  • Kay Bailey Hutchinson, Texas
  • Orrin Hatch, Utah
  • Craig Thomas, Wyoming

Moderate Retention - Total: 1

  • John Kyl, Arizona

Very Weak Retention - Total: 3

  • Jim Talent, Missouri
  • No Incumbent, Tennessee
  • George Allen, Virginia


Solid Retention - Total: 10

  • Dianne Fienstein, California
  • Tom Carper, Delaware
  • Daniel Akaka, Hawaii
  • Ed Kennedy, Massachusetts
  • Ben Nelson, Nebraska
  • Jeff Bingaman, New Mexico
  • Hillary Clinton, New York
  • Kent Conrad, North Dakota
  • Robert Byrd, West Virginia
  • Herb Kohl, Wisconsin

Moderate Retention - Total: 2

  • Bill Nelson, Florida
  • Debbie Stabenow, Michigan

Weak Retention - Total: 3

  • No Incumbent, Maryland
  • No Incumbent, Minnesota
  • Maria Cantwell, Washington

Very Weak Retention - Total: 1

  • Robert Menendez, New Jersey

Very Weak Gain - Total: 2

  • Mike DeWine, Ohio
  • Lincoln Chafee, Rhode Island

Weak Gain - Total: 2

  • Conrad Burns, Montana
  • Rick Santorum, Pennsylvania


Solid Retention - Total:1

  • No Incumbent, Vermont

Weak Gain - Total: 1

  • Joe Lieberman, Connecticut

National Overview - Governor

Note: Name listed next to the seat is the Incumbent, not the projected winner.
Solid Retention - Total: 6
  • Jodi Rell, Connecticut
  • Linda Lingle, Hawaii
  • No Incumbent, Idaho
  • Dave Heineman, Nebraska
  • Mike Rounds, South Dakota
  • Jim Douglas, Vermont
Moderate Retention - Total: 3
  • Sonny Perdue, Georgia
  • Mark Sanford, South Carolina
  • Rick Perry, Texas

Weak Retention - Total: 2

  • Bob Riley, Alabama
  • Frank Murkowski, Alaska

Very Weak Retention - Total: 4

  • Arnold Schwarzenegger, California
  • No Incumbent, Florida
  • Tim Pawlenty, Minnesota
  • No Incumbent, Nevada


Solid Retention - Total: 4

  • Janet Napolitano, Arizona
  • John Lynch, New Hampshire
  • Bill Richardson, New Mexico
  • Phil Bredesen, Tennessee

Moderate Retention - Total: 3

  • Bob Henry, Oklahoma
  • Ed Rendell, Pennsylvania
  • Dave Freudenthal, Wyoming

Weak Retention - Total: 4

  • Rod Blagojevich, Illinois
  • Kathleen Sebelius, Kansas
  • John Baldacci, Maine
  • James Doyle, Wisconsin

Very Weak Retention - Total: 3

  • No Incumbent, Iowa
  • Jennifer Granholm, Michigan
  • Ted Kulongoski, Oregon

Very Weak Gain - Total: 3

  • No Incumbent, Colorado
  • Bob Ehrlich, Maryland
  • Donald Carcieri, Rhode Island

Weak Gain - Total: 1

  • No Incumbent, Massachusetts

Moderate Gain - Total: 2

  • No Incumbent, Arkansas
  • No Incumbent, Ohio

Solid Gain - Total: 1

  • No Incumbent, New York