Election Predictions

Election predictions for all national races in the United States, as well as governor election predictions. Check back daily for updates.

Sunday, January 01, 2006

National Overview - Senate

Note: Name listed next to the seat is the Incumbent, not the projected winner.
Solid Retention - Total: 7
  • Dick Lugar, Indiana
  • Olympia Snowe, Maine
  • Trent Lott, Mississippi
  • John Ensign, Nevada
  • Kay Bailey Hutchinson, Texas
  • Orrin Hatch, Utah
  • Craig Thomas, Wyoming

Moderate Retention - Total: 1

  • John Kyl, Arizona

Very Weak Retention - Total: 3

  • Jim Talent, Missouri
  • No Incumbent, Tennessee
  • George Allen, Virginia


Solid Retention - Total: 10

  • Dianne Fienstein, California
  • Tom Carper, Delaware
  • Daniel Akaka, Hawaii
  • Ed Kennedy, Massachusetts
  • Ben Nelson, Nebraska
  • Jeff Bingaman, New Mexico
  • Hillary Clinton, New York
  • Kent Conrad, North Dakota
  • Robert Byrd, West Virginia
  • Herb Kohl, Wisconsin

Moderate Retention - Total: 2

  • Bill Nelson, Florida
  • Debbie Stabenow, Michigan

Weak Retention - Total: 3

  • No Incumbent, Maryland
  • No Incumbent, Minnesota
  • Maria Cantwell, Washington

Very Weak Retention - Total: 1

  • Robert Menendez, New Jersey

Very Weak Gain - Total: 2

  • Mike DeWine, Ohio
  • Lincoln Chafee, Rhode Island

Weak Gain - Total: 2

  • Conrad Burns, Montana
  • Rick Santorum, Pennsylvania


Solid Retention - Total:1

  • No Incumbent, Vermont

Weak Gain - Total: 1

  • Joe Lieberman, Connecticut


  • At 2:07 PM , Blogger Winston said...

    Aren't Dewine and Talent Republicans?

  • At 3:46 PM , Blogger Tom said...

    The person listed for the seat is the incumbent, not the projected winner.

  • At 2:26 PM , Blogger Winston said...

    Ah, so Dewine and Talent and Burns are on the way out. . .

  • At 10:23 PM , Blogger Tom said...

    As the polls look now, yes. While Talent is leading McCaskill in the current poll, the past couple polls have had McCaskill in the lead. Therefore, I will wait until another poll comes out to reaffirm if Talent is out or in as of now. For Burns, he is currently tied with Tester and is only slightly leading Morrison. Montana does not have a problem electing Democrats, and Burns has been getting hammered relentlessly by the Montana press. Furthmore, a tribe recently rejected Burn's offered donations, saying the money was tainted. We will see how both races turn out. In the end, I doubt both or even one will go Democratic, but as of now it looks that way.

  • At 12:21 AM , Blogger Tom said...

    BQueen, the person listed for the seat is the incumbent, not the projected winner.

  • At 4:27 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

    I could have sworn that Morrison was leading Burns 50-42.

  • At 8:26 PM , Blogger mitch said...

    Dems have a chance to pick up at most 5 seats in the senate! They won't win Missouri, because they can't get phony votes! Our Governor just signed a law that requires voters to show an id when voting! So dead people won't be voting here unless an activist judge gets involved liked on did in Georgia! Dems will pick up seat in Penn. Sanitorum's seat; Maine;
    maybe new mexico ( I doubt it); Rhode Island; and ohio ( I doubt it)
    Remember it is easy for a party to be critical, but what are their solutions......... lol Look on my website like John Kerry said in the 2004 election?

  • At 8:30 PM , Blogger mitch said...

    Montana will stay Republican! Those Folks up their don't sniff kool aid!

  • At 8:37 PM , Blogger mitch said...

    In 2008 elections it will be close! Newt Ginrich or Sen. Allen can win! If Hillary is the Democratic Nominee that will have so much stuff on her! Plagerism in law school; saying when her husband was in office only pro choice judges will go on the bench; just pleading guilty to election fraud; pro illegal immigration stance!!!!!!!!!!!!
    If republicans want to really win they need to start a 527 group aginst democrats using the govenor of Illinois as an example of how they force pharmacists to participate in abortion! Call the Pharmacists have rights too!

  • At 2:34 AM , Anonymous Whittaker said...

    I am sorry you have so many incoherent, and rather ridiculous people commenting on here.

    I also disagree with the weak retention for Maria Cantwell, in the last few weeks she has really strengthened in the Polls and Washington tends to favor Democrats. Further, even the previously heavy republican District eight is in doubt, so I think Maria Cantwell is in a very strong position.

    As for Missouri, it is correct that dead people can't vote, but some of your commenters have been reading a little too much right-wing propaganda.

    As for Montana, it probably will go Democratic, in 2004, a very good Republican year, the state Governorship, House, and Senate went Democratic. Further Conrad burns is corrupt, a liar, and very much a representative of the current Republican Party.

  • At 5:10 PM , Blogger CMBurns said...

    Utah is a Strong Republican Retention.- Nevada should be a Moderate Retention. The open Tennesee Seat is a Weak Republican Retention. Missouri is somewhere between a very weak Republican retention to a very weak Democratic gain.

    Rhode Island should be a weak Democratic Gain.
    Florida should be a Solid Democatic Retention-

    Democrats are favored to pick-up
    Rhode Island

    Missouri- could go either way
    Tennessee- Republicans have an edge.

    Democrats will hold on to
    New Jersey


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