Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Thursday, September 28, 2006
Site will be down until Saturday afternoon
Monday, September 25, 2006
This page will continue to host the trend pages, national maps and overviews until everything can be moved.
Sunday, September 24, 2006
My name is J. Ryan McNelis, I've recently been added to the group of people managing this site, and I'm honored to be here. In very short time, I hope to be helping out very constructively to ensure Tom is managing the best run election prediction site on the web.
In the meantime, I'd like to take a short moment for a small introduction, and possibly a little political commentary. I'm 27 years old, from Rhode Island with a BA in Biology and a Masters in Public Administration. I've been addicted to American politics since Newt's 1994 takeover of Congress. I'm a moderate that leans Democrat, occassionally more my liberal views will reveal themselves, but above all, I'm rational...and FULLY believe neither the Dems or the GOP has ALL the answers. (My posted views do not reflect Election Predictions views.)
Anyway, in a short response to Karen Blanton, on electoral fraud.
Electoral fraud is an age old tradition in American politics stretching ALL the way back to Washington himself. There are MANY ways to fix an election, and both sides are doing it EVERY year and for EVERY election.
"Legal" means include gerrymandering, creating new or excessive poll rules (forms of ID needed, etc), and an ESPECIALLY troublesome one of late...changing the sensitivity of polling machines. Whether a human or a computer...someone/thing has to count those votes. Making them count "chads" or neglect "chads" can SEVERELY influence poll results, either by illegally disenfranchising thousands or by allowing illegal votes to count.
"Illegal" means include having dead people vote (happens EVERYWHERE) and kicking people off voting rolls, as done in Florida's wide net sweep to kick felons off voting rolls, which nabbed many legal voters as well as felons.
But we should ALL vote anyway. Most of the time (98% or more) these schemes do not change the results enough to change the election. For these methods can only tip a result by about a point or so. In the end, yes Gore did win Florida....but to be fair, Kennedy stole the 1960 election from Nixon with the help of a Daley political machine of Chicago.
In the end, such electoral fraud cancels each other out.
So the imperfect system that our system is, runs well enough to still serve Democracy well.
Update (Tom): New Mexico and New York are now on the new site. NY-19 drops off the competitive list.
Update: Nebraska, Nevada, and New Hampshire have been moved over. Three races have dropped off the competitive list: MN-02, NH-01, and NH-02.
Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, and Montana are now on the new page.
Saturday, September 23, 2006
Update (Tom): Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, and Louisiana are now moved to the new page.
Not much today, except I have a little bit of my own news. Inspired by Tom, I bought my own website (I'm 23, well past "minor" age). I will have all my state predictions moved to the new site by the end of September, as well as some of my other stuff on my two Blogger sites (general politics and looking to 2008). Everything should be moved to the new site by early October. My Blogger sites will be up for the rest of the 2006 election, and afterwards will become blank except to redirect visitors to my new site, http://californianintexas.us.
Florida is now up on the new page. Also, Florida's 9th District race drops off the competitive list.
Friday, September 22, 2006
Note: All state pages transferred to the new site have also been updated!
While this site is in the process of moving, why don't you check out the Weekly Projection Update over at Election Projection. Scott runs a great site and uses formulas to predict the outcomes of races. While you're there, why not sign up for his premium content? You can sign up for as little as $.01 it seems, though I am sure $5 is more an acceptable amount.
Update: Arkansas and California are now linked to the new site. I am on a roll here! Hopefully I will complete the state page movement over the weekend. Also, can anyone explain to me how to make a picture that has multiple links in it? I need to put links onto the national overview maps. Thank you!!
I have transferred the first three state pages to the new site. There is a new state overview section on each of the pages. I will continue moving the state pages to that site tonight. If this is your first time here today, scroll down to see the daily polling posted by Sara.
|Arkansas District 2||9/20||Snyder 56|
|Colorado District 4||9/20||Musgrave 46|
|Kansas District 4||9/20||Tiahrt 63|
|Nevada Governor||9/20||Gibbons 49|
|Nevada Senate||9/20||Ensign 50|
|New Mexico District 1||9/20||Wilson 51|
|Ohio Governor||9/20||Strickland 56|
|Ohio Senate||Survey USA||Brown 52|
|Pennsylvania Governor||9/20||Rendell 56|
|Pennsylvania Senate||Rasmussen||Casey 49|
|Pennsylvania District 8||Grove Insight (D)||Fitzpatrick 43|
|Vermont Senate||Research 2000||Sanders 58|