Election Predictions

Election predictions for all national races in the United States, as well as governor election predictions. Check back daily for updates.

Tuesday, January 17, 2006

Southwest Regional Trend

Southwestern states are: Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. Based on voting patterns since 1992, 2 of these states are within the margin for trending, one is trending Republican and one is trending Democrat. However, if you compare data going from the 2000 election to the 2004 election, Texas and New Mexico are trending slightly to the Democrats while Arizona is slighting trending rightward. Nevada is clearly trending towards the Democrats in both analysis, and Nevada is the fastest leftward moving state out of the current red states. All of these states are seeing booming minority, specifically Hispanic, population increases. These voters are starting to move leftward, especially second and third generation immigrants that aren't as religious as the first generation. Texas is the most red state in terms of population, and it is seeing more of its counties trending towards the Democrats than towards the Republicans. 12 out of Nevada's 16 counties are moving leftward at a fairly quick pace. As the population of Hispanic voters continues to increase, these Southwestern states will continue their trend. The GOP is beating itself on the head in this region because of its anti-immigrant tones. The Republican party will continue to alienate voters who may be more socially inclined to side with their party by taking the hard-core anti-immigrant stance to appease its other base. I think the Republican party has grown to large to appease all its constituent bases, and the Southwest will continue to trend Democratically, especially if the Democrats continue their move to a more Populist platform.


  • At 11:35 PM , Blogger Mark said...

    I'm not entirely convinced that the anti-immigration angle is harmful for the Republicans in the Southwest. I certainly don't think it is in the short-term, with Hispanics representing a small percentage of VOTERS even in heavily Hispanic states like Texas and Arizona. With Democratic Governors of AZ and NM declaring a state of emergency fueled by illegal immigration, the GOP has political cover and the support of a very large percentage of constituents (in AZ, voters rated immigration as a bigger concern than the war in Iraq).

    Furthermore, most naturalized Hispanics I know are split on immigration. They generally welcome the idea of more of their countrymen and women living amongst them, but don't welcome the competition for jobs that already pay low wages. I don't know any Hispanics from the Southwest, but I have a feeling the sentiment down there is probably similar, and will grow more so if current levels of illegal immigration continue.

    The Republican Party's most strategically astute but morally repugnant strategy on immigration in the "guest worker program" supported by Bush and the GOP's business wing (and regrettably, plenty of Democrats who are clueless about the program's consequences). Basically, a guest worker program would take the increasing ranks of Hispanic voters off of the table by permanently denying them citizenship and the right to vote. A guest worker program reduces them to a set of hands who get to live in America for a few years to increase Mammon's bottom line, before he gets to send them back to Mexico and trade up. This is institutionalized taxation without representation for the Hispanic working class, which I equate with slavery.

    The politics of immigration is complicated. The Republicans undoubtedly hurt themselves with Hispanics when they start talking about denying them emergency room treatment, but I suspect there would be more Hispanics than you think, particularly in the Southwest, who would support them in building a fence on the border.

  • At 3:34 AM , Blogger Eli Blake said...

    I've lived in three of these states.

    Right now I live in Arizona.

    And for the home state of Barry Goldwater, which didn't elect a Democratic governor for about two decades (despite the fact that one Republican governor left office via impeachment and another via indictment and conviction), we now have a Democrat in the top spot (will easily win re-election), a Democratic attorney general (will also easily win re-election) and could easily pick up a congressional seat.

  • At 3:36 AM , Blogger Eli Blake said...

    And, Mark,

    There are also a lot of sensible people here who always considered the 'build a wall around the country' stuff to be a matter of sarcasm, and don't want to see it. And we aren't all Hispanic either.

  • At 2:37 PM , Blogger Sara said...

    I've lived in two of these states, being from California (which is also very highly impacted by immigration), living in Arizona for a year, and currently living in Texas (and traveling through New Mexico a lot). Immigration was a big issue in the CA-48 special election, with Independent Jim Gilchrist, a co-founder of the Minute Man program, garnered a surprising 25% of the vote, most of which would have probably gone to Campbell (though Campbell won anyway). I have a feeling that potential candidates in these states may bring up immigration to challenge the Dems and GOP.

    And I agree that the Hispanic flux into states like Texas is starting to turn the state leftward; most of the state's border counties went blue in the last election. Also in 2004, we in Dallas voted for our first Hispanic county sheriff (who is also our first female and lesbian county sheriff).

  • At 3:44 PM , Blogger Mark said...

    sara, but note that Kerry's performance in the Rio Grande River Valley was considerably weaker than Gore's four years earlier. Kerry lost Cameron, Frio, Culberson and Brewster Counties, which Gore had won, and his margin had shrunk from 22 points to 10 points in South Texas's most populous county, Hidalgo. Those numbers led me to believe that the exit polls indicating Kerry's soft performance among Hispanics were right, and a definite concern for the Democrats if the pattern continues.

  • At 4:55 PM , Blogger C.H. Truth said...

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    http://www.coldheartedtruth.com/ is the site that is in use...

    I added you to my Projection Site area on my left sidebar - right above the blogroll.

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  • At 1:59 PM , Anonymous Maria said...

    I come to this counrty with only the clothes on my back. Ronald Regan let me stay and raise my kids in this great country. We work hard and I am greatfulk everyday it for ronald reagan. Republicans are not anti-immigrant.


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