Election Predictions

Election predictions for all national races in the United States, as well as governor election predictions. Check back daily for updates.

Sunday, January 01, 2006

Northeast Regional Trend

All Northeastern states are quite similiar in political trends. Based on voting patterns since 1992, the Northeast is moving to the Democrats. The Northeast is by far the most liberal region of the country. The most logical explanation for the leftist leanings of the Northeast is the fact that it is the most urban region of the country. This may explain voter's general affinity towards the Democrats. Cities like New York, Philadelphia, Boston, Pittsburgh, Hartford, etc., have large populations in the city and in the surrounding areas which account for most of the population of the Northeast. Many Northeastern states are seeing increasing Hispanic and minority populations. The Northeast rivals the West Coast in terms of concern over the environment. This plays a large part in the election of Republican moderates like Lincoln Chafee. While the Northeast has recently seen a decline in population as a percentage, I believe this trend will reverse. Numerous large Northeastern cities, Philadelphia being the greatest example, are undergoing a revitalization not seen in decades. The appeal of living in the city is increasing, with more people returning to Philadelphia and moving there to start. Once water problems in the Southwest reach critical levels, the Northeast will see a robust increase in population. There is no forseeable trend towards the Republicans anytime soon. While an explanation of the roots of Northeastern ideals would be lengthy and time consuming, there is no doubt that these opinions on issues like abortion are steadfast. Unless the Republican and Democratic parties switch roles, expect the Northeast to continue to move leftward. Just like in the Mid-Atlantic, outlying suburbs of major cities have been voting increasingly Democratic, though suburbs historically have been more favorable to Republicans. Economic populism may be the key in the turn to the Democrats. The Republicans have no chance of coming back in the Northeast. Presidentially, more states are trending Democratic than Republican. Furthermore, no Democratic states are moving rightward. The Republicans will have a tough time winning in the future if the Eastern seaboard continues its leftward lunge.

2 Comments:

  • At 5:31 PM , Anonymous darboy said...

    I think the reason for the leftward turn of the Northeast is that there is a sharp cultural split in this country which is getting more apparent. The Northeast exhibits European, modern, liberal, individualist, and libertarian values, while places like the South have collectivist, fundamentalist, formalist, conservative values. People in the northeast associate Republicans with the values of the South and accordingly resist.

     
  • At 1:55 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Listen up you tax rasing, sushi eating, latte drinking, new york times reading, volvi driving, left wing freak show.

    The unemployment rate in Europe is much higher than the US, so STHU. (h=heck)
    Your act like some ellitest but youir just a loser.

     

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