Site will be down until Saturday afternoon

Looks like this site won't be transferring over the next couple days. It will have to wait until after the election. However, everything will continue on this site. I won't be able to transfer before the election because that means transferring alot of existing data. If I do it after the election, I can start over. Also, after the election this blog will continue operating as a blog. If you would like to join the team blog at Election Predictions after that let me know. It will continue under blog.electionprediction.us. The main site will be what is currently located here, but with a new template minus the blog format. If anyone is great at creating templates, let me know. The new site will need a nice one.

We're moving..

All state pages have been transferred. Daily polling will now move to the new site. Soon, you will see maps with links to the state pages and new national overview pages. Once they are complete, the old site will just direct you here. Also, WY-AL drops off the competitive race list, and TX-17 becomes a WEAK RETENTION. This site will no longer be updated, so go to the new home of Election Predictions! (Brian, Scott, Ryan, and Sara let me know if you have trouble accessing the new site.)

This page will continue to host the trend pages, national maps and overviews until everything can be moved.

Monday Polling

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Arizona District 8	9/24	Arizona Daily Star	Giffords 48 Graf 36
Florida Senate	9/24	Research 2000	Nelson 55 Harris 37
Maine Governor	9/24	Rasmussen	Baldacci 44 Woodcock 39
Maryland Governor	9/24	Potomac	O'Malley 50 Ehrlich 44
Maryland Senate	9/24	Potomac	Cardin 51 Steele 40
Minnesota Senate	9/24	Mason-Dixon	Klobuchar 52 Kennedy 37
Montana Senate	9/24	Rasmussen	Tester 50 Burns 43
Nevada Governor	9/24	Mason-Dixon	Gibbons 45 Titus 36
Nevada District 2	9/24	Mason-Dixon	Heller 45 Derby 42
Nevada District 3	9/24	Mason-Dixon	Porter 47 Hafen 37
New Jersey Senate	9/24	Monmouth/ Gannett	Kean 44 Menendez 39
Oregon Governor	9/24	Rasmussen	Kulongoski 47 Saxton 38
Washington Senate	9/24	Rasmussen	Cantwell 48 McGavick 42
Wisconsin Governor	9/24	Rasmussen	Doyle 47 Green 44
Wisconsin Senate	9/24	Rasmussen	Kohl 60 Lorge 33

North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, and Oklahoma are on the new site. Also, OH-06 drops off the competitive race list.

Hello Everyone...

Edit by Tom: Sorry readers for changing the font size, the post for some reason was pushing the sidebar down.

My name is J. Ryan McNelis, I've recently been added to the group of people managing this site, and I'm honored to be here. In very short time, I hope to be helping out very constructively to ensure Tom is managing the best run election prediction site on the web.

In the meantime, I'd like to take a short moment for a small introduction, and possibly a little political commentary. I'm 27 years old, from Rhode Island with a BA in Biology and a Masters in Public Administration. I've been addicted to American politics since Newt's 1994 takeover of Congress. I'm a moderate that leans Democrat, occassionally more my liberal views will reveal themselves, but above all, I'm rational...and FULLY believe neither the Dems or the GOP has ALL the answers. (My posted views do not reflect Election Predictions views.)

Anyway, in a short response to Karen Blanton, on electoral fraud.

Electoral fraud is an age old tradition in American politics stretching ALL the way back to Washington himself. There are MANY ways to fix an election, and both sides are doing it EVERY year and for EVERY election.

"Legal" means include gerrymandering, creating new or excessive poll rules (forms of ID needed, etc), and an ESPECIALLY troublesome one of late...changing the sensitivity of polling machines. Whether a human or a computer...someone/thing has to count those votes. Making them count "chads" or neglect "chads" can SEVERELY influence poll results, either by illegally disenfranchising thousands or by allowing illegal votes to count.

"Illegal" means include having dead people vote (happens EVERYWHERE) and kicking people off voting rolls, as done in Florida's wide net sweep to kick felons off voting rolls, which nabbed many legal voters as well as felons.

Frustrating? -Yes.

But we should ALL vote anyway. Most of the time (98% or more) these schemes do not change the results enough to change the election. For these methods can only tip a result by about a point or so. In the end, yes Gore did win Florida....but to be fair, Kennedy stole the 1960 election from Nixon with the help of a Daley political machine of Chicago.

In the end, such electoral fraud cancels each other out.
So the imperfect system that our system is, runs well enough to still serve Democracy well.

Sunday Polling

Update (Tom): New Mexico and New York are now on the new site. NY-19 drops off the competitive list.

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Florida Governor	9/24	Research 2000	Crist 49 Davis 43
Illinois Governor	9/24	Mason-Dixon	Blagojevich 47 Topinka 37
Maryland Governor	9/24	Survey USA	O'Malley 50 Ehrlich 44
New Jersey Senate	9/24	Survey USA	Kean 44 Menendez 38
Ohio Governor	9/22	Columbus Dispatch	Strickland 52 Blackwell 33
Ohio Senate	9/22	Columbus Dispatch	Brown 47 DeWine 42
Pennsylvania Governor	9/24	Survey USA	Rendell 60 Swann 33
Pennsylvania Senate	9/24	Survey USA	Casey 49 Santorum 39

Update 2: New Jersey has been moved. Check back later for more state page updates/movements.

Update: Nebraska, Nevada, and New Hampshire have been moved over. Three races have dropped off the competitive list: MN-02, NH-01, and NH-02.

Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, and Montana are now on the new page.

Saturday Polling

Update 2 (Tom): Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Michigan are now on the new page.

Update (Tom): Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, and Louisiana are now moved to the new page.

Not much today, except I have a little bit of my own news. Inspired by Tom, I bought my own website (I'm 23, well past "minor" age). I will have all my state predictions moved to the new site by the end of September, as well as some of my other stuff on my two Blogger sites (general politics and looking to 2008). Everything should be moved to the new site by early October. My Blogger sites will be up for the rest of the 2006 election, and afterwards will become blank except to redirect visitors to my new site, http://californianintexas.us.

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Colorado Governor	9/20	Rasmussen	Ritter 50 Beauprez 34
Florida Governor	9/22	Research & Polling, Inc.	Crist 45 Davis 39
Massachusetts Governor	9/21	Survey USA	Patrick 64 Healey 25
Nebraska Governor	9/20	Rasmussen	Heineman 72 Hahn 18

Update: Illinois and Indiana are now on the new site.

Hawaii and Idaho are now up on the new site.

Georgia is also transferred.

Florida is now up on the new page. Also, Florida's 9th District race drops off the competitive list.

Update: Connecticut and Delaware are now on the new site.
Note: All state pages transferred to the new site have also been updated!

While this site is in the process of moving, why don't you check out the Weekly Projection Update over at Election Projection. Scott runs a great site and uses formulas to predict the outcomes of races. While you're there, why not sign up for his premium content? You can sign up for as little as $.01 it seems, though I am sure $5 is more an acceptable amount.

Update 2: California's 50th District has been moved out of the competitive column, while Colorado's 7th District has moved to a VERY WEAK GAIN for the Democrats.

Update: Arkansas and California are now linked to the new site. I am on a roll here! Hopefully I will complete the state page movement over the weekend. Also, can anyone explain to me how to make a picture that has multiple links in it? I need to put links onto the national overview maps. Thank you!!

I have transferred the first three state pages to the new site. There is a new state overview section on each of the pages. I will continue moving the state pages to that site tonight. If this is your first time here today, scroll down to see the daily polling posted by Sara.

Friday Polling

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Arkansas District 2	9/20	Survey USA	Snyder 56 Mayberry 42
Colorado District 4	9/20	Survey USA	Musgrave 46 Paccione 42
Delaware Senate	9/22	Farleigh- Dickinson	Carper 63 Ting 23
Georgia Governor	9/21	Insider Advantage	Perdue 52 Taylor 32
Kansas District 4	9/20	Survey USA	Tiahrt 63 McGinn 30
Minnesota Governor	9/20	Mason-Dixon	Pawlenty 42 Hatch 39
Minnesota Senate	9/22	Humphrey Institute	Klobuchar 52 Kennedy 36
Nevada Governor	9/20	Rasmussen	Gibbons 49 Titus 35
Nevada Senate	9/20	Rasmussen	Ensign 50 Carter 41
New Mexico District 1	9/20	Survey USA	Wilson 51 Madrid 46
Ohio Governor	9/20	Survey USA	Strickland 56 Blackwell 32
Ohio Senate	9/20	Survey USA	Brown 52 DeWine 42
Pennsylvania Governor	9/20	Rasmussen	Rendell 56 Swann 36
Pennsylvania Senate	9/20	Rasmussen	Casey 49 Santorum 39
Pennsylvania District 8	9/21	Grove Insight (D)	Fitzpatrick 43 Murphy 38
Vermont Senate	9/21	Research 2000	Sanders 58 Tarrant 33

Surprise readers! This site is moving to http://www.electionprediction.us. I have put up the main page and am in the process of transferring data. Entries will continue on this site until the transfer is complete. After that, this site will forward you to the new address. Sara, Brian, Ryan, and Scott please email me your full name, the display name you want for the new site, and your preferred user name. I will email you a password to access the new site after you send me this! Readers: Sara is currently working on Friday polling, so check back later for the polls. I will also look to see if any updates are in order for today.

No race changes today. Look for some tomorrow.

Wednesday and Thursday Polling

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Arizona Senate	9/18	Rasmussen	Kyl 50 Pederson 39
Connecticut Senate	9/15-9/19	American Res. Group	Lieberman 47Lamont 45
Illinois Governor	9/17-9/19	SurveyUSA	Blagojevich 45Topinka 39
Maine Governor	9/18	Rasmussen	Baldacci 44 Woodcock 39
Maryland Governor	9/17-9/19	SurveyUSA	O'Malley 51 Ehrlich 44
Maryland Senate	9/17-9/19	SurveyUSA	Steele 48 Cardin 47
Michigan Governor	9/15-9/17	Strategic Vision (R)	Granholm 47DeVos 46
Michigan Senate	9/15-9/17	Strategic Vision (R)	Stabenow 51 Bouchard 44
Minnesota Governor	9/13-9/18	Univ. of Minnesota	Hatch 44 Pawlenty 42
New Jersey Senate	9/13-9/18	Quinnipiac	Kean 48 Menendez 45
Ohio-02	9/17-9/19	SurveyUSA	Schmidt 45 Wulsin 42
Ohio Governor	9/7-917	University of Cincinnati	Strickland 50Blackwell 38
Ohio Senate	9/11-9/17	Quinnipiac	Brown 45 DeWine 44
Ohio Senate	9/7-917	University of Cincinnati	Brown 51DeWine 47
Oregon Governor	9/18	Rasmussen	Kulongoski 47Saxton 38
Pennsylvania Governor	9/20	Rasmussen	Rendell 56 Swann 36
Pennsylvania Governor	9/13-9/18	Keystone Poll	Rendell 52Swann 34
Pennsylvania Senate	9/20	Rasmussen	Casey 49Santorum 39
Pennsylvania Senate	9/13-9/18	Keystone Poll	Casey 45Santorum 38
Rhode Island Senate	9/15-9/19	American Res. Group	Whitehouse 45Chafee 40
South Carolina Governor	9/17-9/19	SurveyUSA	Sanford 54Moore 41
Vermont-AL	9/18-9/19	Reasearch 2000	Welch 45Rainville 39
Wisconsin Governor	9/15-9/17	Strategic Vision (R)	Doyle 46Green 42

I regret to inform Election Predictions readers that this site will not be moving before Election Day. I transferred the domain to the new server where I can easily customize the site, but since the domain was registered only a day ago I am required to wait 60 days to transfer it to the new host. However, this means that I have more time to devote to this site, and after the election I can focus on moving the site for 2007 and 2008.

Unfortunately, I am extremely busy over the next few days. I will not be able to post as often, and daily polling may or may not be up tomorrow and Friday. Additionally, I am having tons of trouble trying to start the new website. I am unable it seems to start with a blank page and not a 'customizable' template. As a result, I cannot figure out how to put advertising space or projection totals on the sidebar. Anyone know a good blog hosting service I can transfer the domain to?

Washington and Massachusetts pages are updated.

I am currently updating the state pages of Massachusetts and Washington following the primaries.

Maryland: Finally, Some Polls

The Democratic trend in the Old Line State continues...

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Maryland Governor	9/19	Rasmussen	O'Malley 49Ehrlich 42
Maryland Senate	9/19	Rasmussen	Cardin 50Steele 43

KY-04: New Poll

In Kentucky's 4th District, we see another poll showing Lucas in the lead. A previous poll had shown Davis ahead, but earlier polls also had Lucas in the lead:

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Kentucky-04	9/16-9/18	SurveyUSA	Lucas 48Davis 44

Daily polling will be up later, along with any needed race rating changes.

Election Predictions is Moving!

I am happy to inform our readers here at Election Predictions that this site will be moving to its own domain: www.electionpredictions.us. It will take me a week or so to configure the new site. In the meantime, you can continue to be updated on this site. Get ready for some new features!

Thursday Polling On A Tuesday...

I'll be on vacation from Thursday, September 21st until Monday, October 2nd, so I figured I'd contribute while I can. The biggest pieces of news here are the significant tightening in the Connnecticut Senate race, the impending blowout in the Ohio Governor's race, and the possibility of Katherine Harris' congressional seat turning blue.

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Connecticut Senate	9/19	Rasmussen	Lieberman 45Lamont 43Schlesinger 5
OhioGovernor	9/19	Quinnipiac	Strickland 55Blackwell 34
Indiana-02	9/18	South Bend Tribune	Donnelly 50Chocola 42
Arizona-05	9/18	SurveyUSA	Hayworth 52Mitchell 40
Michigan Senate	9/18	SurveyUSA	Stabenow 54Bouchard 41
Michigan Governor	9/18	SurveyUSA	Granholm 47DeVos 47
Colorado-03	9/18	SurveyUSA	Salazar 52Tipton 41
Florida-13	9/19	Ham. Beattie (D)	Jennings 46Buchanan 38

The state pages for these races have been updated. I'll see you guys in a week or so. Take care!

Republicans Retain Majority: One Shifts

Today we have a new poll released in Minnesota's 6th Congressional District, which reaffirms that Republicans are going to retain this seat as currently projected:

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Minnesota-06	9/18	SurveyUSA	Bachmann 50Wetterling 41

WI-08: This shifts to a VERY WEAK RETENTION for the GOP.

Daily polling will be up later.

Republican House Incumbents: Good News

Update 2: This site is horriby behind in integrating polls into the state pages. Scott has been unable to join the Election Predictions team due to Blogger problems, and it is a lot of work. Brian and Sara, if you are willing to put some polls into the state pages 9/11, 9/12, 9/15, and today's polling data all need to be included. I integrated more than half of 9/11's polling already. Thanks alot, and sorry to our readers.

Here are three House polls released today in supposedly competitive Republican districts:

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
NH-01	9/12-9/13	Research 2000	Bradley 56Porter 31
NH-02	9/12-9/13	Research 2000	Bass 53Hodes 30
PA-07	9/12-9/13	Public Opinion Strategies (R)	Weldon 52Sestak 33

I highly doubt that Weldon is winning by such a large margin in Pennsylvania's 7th District. Other polls have shown them virtually tied, and a Republican polling firm won't change that rating in my mind. However, the New Hampshire polls are of note.

NH-02: This race moves to a WEAK RETENTION for the Republicans.

Update: I know I posted this over the weekend, but the bulk of this sites traffic occurs over the course of the week. Don't worry, this is the last time you will have to read this phooey:

I really want to be able to move this site to its own domain name this year. Network Solutions offers the entire hosting package for $26.94 to register and host http://www.electionpredictions.us/. In order to make this site sustainable, I would need to offer advertising spots in order to generate $14.95 a month after the initial set up fee. I think that is quite doable. However, because I am still a minor, (I will be 18 before Election Day), I have no way to pay for the site and legally am not allowed to put up advertising and generate income until mid-October. (I can't even set up a PayPal to accept donations to fund the move.) Just letting readers know the situation. If someone wants to buy the domain for $26.94 and transfer it to us here at Election Predictions, I will reimburse you after the election! If you would like to help out you can email me at electionpredictions@yahoo.com. What a unique domain would bring:

Nicer tables
Interactive maps
Better presentation
More features!
Bullets that actually appear on the page!

Montana: Bluer By The Day?

It's starting to look that way, with this new poll of the state's much-anticipated Senate race.

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
MontanaSenate	9/13	Rasmussen	Tester 52Burns 43

Question of the day: What's the best movie you've seen over the last year?

I'm going with "Little Miss Sunshine"...

Monday Polling

Every state that has had primaries now has money tables of the Senate and competitive House races. When I post polls next weekend, I will have the money data for Washington, Massachusetts, and Hawaii tabulated also.

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Iowa Governor	9/16	Selzer & Co.	Culver 44%, Nussle 44%
Iowa District 1	9/16	Selzer & Co.	Braley 44%, Whalen 37%
Minnesota Governor	9/15	Minneapolis Star-Tribune	Hatch 42%, Pawlenty 42%
Minnesota Senate	9/15	Minneapolis Star-Tribune	Klobuchar 56%, Kennedy 32%
Nevada Governor	9/8	Research 2000	Gibbons 45%, Titus 38%
New Hampshire Governor	9/15	Research 2000	Lynch 61%, Coburn 24%
Ohio Senate	9/13	Rasmussen	Brown 47%, DeWine 41%
Rhode Island Governor	9/13	Rasmussen	Carcieri 47%, Fogarty 45%
Rhode Island Senate	9/13	Rasmussen	Whitehouse 51%, Chafee 43%

Election Predictions moving to its own site?

Update: If you would like to help out you can email me at electionpredictions@yahoo.com.

I really want to be able to move this site to its own domain name this year. Network Solutions offers the entire hosting package for $26.94 to register and host www.electionpredictions.us. In order to make this site sustainable, I would need to offer advertising spots in order to generate $14.95 a month after the initial set up fee. I think that is quite doable. However, because I am still a minor, (I will be 18 before Election Day), I have no way to pay for the site and legally am not allowed to put up advertising and generate income until mid-October. Therefore, I will probably have to wait until the next election cycle to move to a unique domain for Election Predictions. (I can't even set up a PayPal to accept donations to fund the move.) Just letting readers know the situation. I don't know if there is any way to get around this situation, unless someone wants to buy the domain for $26.94 and transfer it to us here at Election Predictions! Once this site starts generating revenue and I am old enough to open a PayPal account, I can easily reimburse you. Anyway, I am integrating polls still from this month. Sara is doing money tables, and they look really nice.

Update: I forgot to mention the benefits of a unique domain:

• Nicer tables
• Interactive maps
• Better presentation
• More features!
• Bullets that actually appear on the page!

Sara is currently adding campaign cash tables to the state pages, and she is cranking them out like a machine. I on the other hand am taking a long time integrating polling data. I will do some more tomorrow.

UPDATE (2:50 AM): Just finished updating Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, and Florida with the money tables. Look for all state pages to be updated by Sunday night or Monday.

UPDATE II (11:12 AM): Every state (with Senate and/or competitive House races) through Maryland has tables.

- Sara

Saturday Polling (or lack thereof)

I didn't find any new polls today except some from Rasmussen that are currently available only for premium users (of which I am not) for Senate (Montana, Connecticut, Ohio, Maryland; New Mexico) and Governor (Maryland, New Mexico). Look for those to be put up tomorrow or Monday.

UPDATE (8:51 PM): With no new polls to work with, that at least frees up some time for me to incorporate the money tables into the Senate and House races.

I will spend all my updating time today integrating polls into the state pages. There must be at least 50 polls that need to be included. Sara and Brian, if you would like to help out just let me know what day's polling you will add. Polling from 9/15, 9/14, and 9/11 needs to be integrated.

Friday Polling

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Florida Governor	9/13	Survey USA	Crist 49%, Davis 41%
Florida Senate	9/13	Survey USA	Nelson 53%, Harris 38%
Maine Governor	9/12	Survey USA	Baldacci 42%, Woodcock 41%
Michigan Governor	9/13	EPIC/MRI	Granholm 50%, DeVos 42%
Michigan Senate	9/12	EPIC/MRI	Stabenow 53%, Bouchard 34%
Tennessee Governor	9/11	Survey USA	Bredesen 63%, Bryson 30%
Texas Governor	9/11	Rasmussen	Perry 33%, Strayhorn 22%, Bell 18%, Friedman 16%
Vermont Governor	9/14	American Research Group	Douglas 59%, Parker 32%
Vermont Senate	9/14	American Research Group	Sanders 55%, Tarrant 40%
Vermont District At Large	9/14	American Research Group	Welsh 48%, Rainville 45%

Colorado Governor's Race Coming Clearer...

When a poll released by a Republican polling outfit shows a once-close race being led by the Democratic candidate by 17 points, it might be time to put this one in the "Solid Gain" category...

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Colorado Governor	9/10-12	Public Opinion Strategies (R)	Ritter 50Beauprez 33

I've got a quick question for the EP readership that I posed at my site:

If the Democrats take control of Congress in November, do you think any Republicans will switch parties to stay in the majority a la Ben Nighthorse Campbell in 1994? If so, which ones will make the jump?

Check back later today for daily polling by Sara and a few race updates from me.

Thursday Polling

Earlier today, Brian and I posted four House polls from Indiana. Additionally, I updated the race ratings for 12 races. Two moved to the Democrats while one moved to the Republicans. Overall, 10 moved in favor of the Democrats versus 2 to the Republicans. I will try and update some races every day. I really want to pick up where some of election sites went premium left off. My goal is to provide a free alternative that is just as accurate and just as informative. If you would like to help out by linking here, please do so. Consider it a donation to this site. Here is the daily polling:

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
California-50	9/10-9/12	SurveyUSA	Bilbray 54 Busby 40
Iowa-03	9/8	KCCI	Boswell 52Lamberti 41
Iowa Governor	9/8	KCCI	Culver 48Nussle 43
Kansas Governor	9/11-9/13	SurveyUSA	Sebelius 58Barnett 38
Missouri Senate	9/11-9/13	SurveyUSA	McCaskill 48Talent 47
Missouri Senate	9/11	Rasmussen	McCaskill 45 Talent 42
Montana Senate	9/12	Rasmussen	Tester 52Burns 43
New Jersey Senate	9/8-9/10	Strategic Vision	Kean 44Menendez 40
Virginia Senate	9/11	Rasmussen	Allen 50Webb 43

Republicans cruising getting hammered in Indiana.

Three polls by Constituent Dynamics have Democrats leading in all three competitive Indiana House Districts.

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Indiana-02	9/8-9/10	Constituent Dynamics	Donnelly 52,Chocola 40
Indiana-08	9/8-9/10	Constituent Dynamics	Ellsworth 51, Hostettler 45
Indiana-09	9/8-9/10	Constituent Dynamics	Hill 53,Sodrel 42

Another Democratic Pickup In Indiana?

The latest poll in one of the three potential blue pickups in Indiana...

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Indiana-08	9/14	Research2000	Ellsworth 44Hostettler 40