Election Predictions

Election predictions for all national races in the United States, as well as governor election predictions. Check back daily for updates.

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Election Predictions is Back

It's about time. Anyway, after the move away from this site everything just got way too tiresome editing code and whatnot. In the next few days this site will be back up and running.

Thursday, September 28, 2006

Site will be down until Saturday afternoon

Looks like this site won't be transferring over the next couple days. It will have to wait until after the election. However, everything will continue on this site. I won't be able to transfer before the election because that means transferring alot of existing data. If I do it after the election, I can start over. Also, after the election this blog will continue operating as a blog. If you would like to join the team blog at Election Predictions after that let me know. It will continue under blog.electionprediction.us. The main site will be what is currently located here, but with a new template minus the blog format. If anyone is great at creating templates, let me know. The new site will need a nice one.

Monday, September 25, 2006

We're moving..

All state pages have been transferred. Daily polling will now move to the new site. Soon, you will see maps with links to the state pages and new national overview pages. Once they are complete, the old site will just direct you here. Also, WY-AL drops off the competitive race list, and TX-17 becomes a WEAK RETENTION. This site will no longer be updated, so go to the new home of Election Predictions! (Brian, Scott, Ryan, and Sara let me know if you have trouble accessing the new site.)

This page will continue to host the trend pages, national maps and overviews until everything can be moved.

Monday Polling

Race
Date
Polling Company
Results
Arizona District 8
9/24
Arizona Daily Star
Giffords 48
Graf 36
Florida Senate
9/24
Research 2000
Nelson 55
Harris 37
Maine Governor
9/24
Rasmussen
Baldacci 44
Woodcock 39
Maryland Governor
9/24
Potomac
O'Malley 50
Ehrlich 44
Maryland Senate
9/24
Potomac
Cardin 51
Steele 40
Minnesota Senate
9/24
Mason-Dixon
Klobuchar 52
Kennedy 37
Montana Senate
9/24
Rasmussen
Tester 50
Burns 43
Nevada Governor
9/24
Mason-Dixon
Gibbons 45
Titus 36
Nevada District 2
9/24
Mason-Dixon
Heller 45
Derby 42
Nevada District 3
9/24
Mason-Dixon
Porter 47
Hafen 37
New Jersey Senate
9/24
Monmouth/ Gannett
Kean 44
Menendez 39
Oregon Governor
9/24
Rasmussen
Kulongoski 47
Saxton 38
Washington Senate
9/24
Rasmussen
Cantwell 48
McGavick 42
Wisconsin Governor
9/24
Rasmussen
Doyle 47
Green 44
Wisconsin Senate
9/24
Rasmussen
Kohl 60
Lorge 33

Sunday, September 24, 2006

North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, and Oklahoma are on the new site. Also, OH-06 drops off the competitive race list.

Hello Everyone...

Edit by Tom: Sorry readers for changing the font size, the post for some reason was pushing the sidebar down.

My name is J. Ryan McNelis, I've recently been added to the group of people managing this site, and I'm honored to be here. In very short time, I hope to be helping out very constructively to ensure Tom is managing the best run election prediction site on the web.

In the meantime, I'd like to take a short moment for a small introduction, and possibly a little political commentary. I'm 27 years old, from Rhode Island with a BA in Biology and a Masters in Public Administration. I've been addicted to American politics since Newt's 1994 takeover of Congress. I'm a moderate that leans Democrat, occassionally more my liberal views will reveal themselves, but above all, I'm rational...and FULLY believe neither the Dems or the GOP has ALL the answers. (My posted views do not reflect Election Predictions views.)

Anyway, in a short response to Karen Blanton, on electoral fraud.

Electoral fraud is an age old tradition in American politics stretching ALL the way back to Washington himself. There are MANY ways to fix an election, and both sides are doing it EVERY year and for EVERY election.

"Legal" means include gerrymandering, creating new or excessive poll rules (forms of ID needed, etc), and an ESPECIALLY troublesome one of late...changing the sensitivity of polling machines. Whether a human or a computer...someone/thing has to count those votes. Making them count "chads" or neglect "chads" can SEVERELY influence poll results, either by illegally disenfranchising thousands or by allowing illegal votes to count.

"Illegal" means include having dead people vote (happens EVERYWHERE) and kicking people off voting rolls, as done in Florida's wide net sweep to kick felons off voting rolls, which nabbed many legal voters as well as felons.

Frustrating? -Yes.

But we should ALL vote anyway. Most of the time (98% or more) these schemes do not change the results enough to change the election. For these methods can only tip a result by about a point or so. In the end, yes Gore did win Florida....but to be fair, Kennedy stole the 1960 election from Nixon with the help of a Daley political machine of Chicago.

In the end, such electoral fraud cancels each other out.
So the imperfect system that our system is, runs well enough to still serve Democracy well.

Sunday Polling

Update (Tom): New Mexico and New York are now on the new site. NY-19 drops off the competitive list.

Race
Date
Polling Company
Results
Florida Governor
9/24
Research 2000
Crist 49
Davis 43
Illinois Governor
9/24
Mason-Dixon
Blagojevich 47
Topinka 37
Maryland Governor
9/24
Survey USA
O'Malley 50
Ehrlich 44
New Jersey Senate
9/24
Survey USA
Kean 44
Menendez 38
Ohio Governor
9/22
Columbus Dispatch
Strickland 52
Blackwell 33
Ohio Senate
9/22
Columbus Dispatch
Brown 47
DeWine 42
Pennsylvania Governor
9/24
Survey USA
Rendell 60
Swann 33
Pennsylvania Senate
9/24
Survey USA
Casey 49
Santorum 39
Update 2: New Jersey has been moved. Check back later for more state page updates/movements.

Update: Nebraska, Nevada, and New Hampshire have been moved over. Three races have dropped off the competitive list: MN-02, NH-01, and NH-02.

Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, and Montana are now on the new page.

Saturday, September 23, 2006

Saturday Polling

Update 2 (Tom): Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Michigan are now on the new page.

Update (Tom): Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, and Louisiana are now moved to the new page.

Not much today, except I have a little bit of my own news. Inspired by Tom, I bought my own website (I'm 23, well past "minor" age). I will have all my state predictions moved to the new site by the end of September, as well as some of my other stuff on my two Blogger sites (general politics and looking to 2008). Everything should be moved to the new site by early October. My Blogger sites will be up for the rest of the 2006 election, and afterwards will become blank except to redirect visitors to my new site, http://californianintexas.us.


Race
Date
Polling Company
Results
Colorado Governor
9/20
Rasmussen
Ritter 50
Beauprez 34
Florida Governor
9/22
Research & Polling, Inc.
Crist 45
Davis 39
Massachusetts Governor
9/21
Survey USA
Patrick 64
Healey 25
Nebraska Governor
9/20
Rasmussen
Heineman 72
Hahn 18
Update: Illinois and Indiana are now on the new site.

Hawaii and Idaho are now up on the new site.
Georgia is also transferred.

Florida is now up on the new page. Also, Florida's 9th District race drops off the competitive list.

Friday, September 22, 2006

Update: Connecticut and Delaware are now on the new site.
Note: All state pages transferred to the new site have also been updated!

While this site is in the process of moving, why don't you check out the Weekly Projection Update over at Election Projection. Scott runs a great site and uses formulas to predict the outcomes of races. While you're there, why not sign up for his premium content? You can sign up for as little as $.01 it seems, though I am sure $5 is more an acceptable amount.
Update 2: California's 50th District has been moved out of the competitive column, while Colorado's 7th District has moved to a VERY WEAK GAIN for the Democrats.

Update: Arkansas and California are now linked to the new site. I am on a roll here! Hopefully I will complete the state page movement over the weekend. Also, can anyone explain to me how to make a picture that has multiple links in it? I need to put links onto the national overview maps. Thank you!!

I have transferred the first three state pages to the new site. There is a new state overview section on each of the pages. I will continue moving the state pages to that site tonight. If this is your first time here today, scroll down to see the daily polling posted by Sara.

Friday Polling

Race
Date
Polling Company
Results
Arkansas District 2
9/20
Survey USA
Snyder 56
Mayberry 42
Colorado District 4
9/20
Survey USA
Musgrave 46
Paccione 42
Delaware
Senate
9/22
Farleigh-
Dickinson
Carper 63
Ting 23

Georgia Governor
9/21
Insider Advantage
Perdue 52
Taylor 32
Kansas District 4
9/20
Survey USA
Tiahrt 63
McGinn 30
Minnesota Governor
9/20
Mason-Dixon
Pawlenty 42
Hatch 39
Minnesota Senate
9/22
Humphrey Institute
Klobuchar 52
Kennedy 36
Nevada Governor9/20
Rasmussen
Gibbons 49
Titus 35
Nevada Senate9/20
Rasmussen
Ensign 50
Carter 41
New Mexico District 1
9/20
Survey USA
Wilson 51
Madrid 46
Ohio Governor9/20
Survey USA
Strickland 56
Blackwell 32
Ohio Senate
9/20
Survey USA Brown 52
DeWine 42
Pennsylvania Governor9/20
Rasmussen
Rendell 56
Swann 36
Pennsylvania Senate
9/20
RasmussenCasey 49
Santorum 39
Pennsylvania District 8
9/21
Grove Insight (D)
Fitzpatrick 43
Murphy 38
Vermont Senate
9/21
Research 2000
Sanders 58
Tarrant 33
Surprise readers! This site is moving to http://www.electionprediction.us. I have put up the main page and am in the process of transferring data. Entries will continue on this site until the transfer is complete. After that, this site will forward you to the new address. Sara, Brian, Ryan, and Scott please email me your full name, the display name you want for the new site, and your preferred user name. I will email you a password to access the new site after you send me this! Readers: Sara is currently working on Friday polling, so check back later for the polls. I will also look to see if any updates are in order for today.