Election Predictions is Back

It's about time. Anyway, after the move away from this site everything just got way too tiresome editing code and whatnot. In the next few days this site will be back up and running.

Site will be down until Saturday afternoon

Looks like this site won't be transferring over the next couple days. It will have to wait until after the election. However, everything will continue on this site. I won't be able to transfer before the election because that means transferring alot of existing data. If I do it after the election, I can start over. Also, after the election this blog will continue operating as a blog. If you would like to join the team blog at Election Predictions after that let me know. It will continue under blog.electionprediction.us. The main site will be what is currently located here, but with a new template minus the blog format. If anyone is great at creating templates, let me know. The new site will need a nice one.

We're moving..

All state pages have been transferred. Daily polling will now move to the new site. Soon, you will see maps with links to the state pages and new national overview pages. Once they are complete, the old site will just direct you here. Also, WY-AL drops off the competitive race list, and TX-17 becomes a WEAK RETENTION. This site will no longer be updated, so go to the new home of Election Predictions! (Brian, Scott, Ryan, and Sara let me know if you have trouble accessing the new site.)

This page will continue to host the trend pages, national maps and overviews until everything can be moved.

Monday Polling

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Arizona District 8	9/24	Arizona Daily Star	Giffords 48 Graf 36
Florida Senate	9/24	Research 2000	Nelson 55 Harris 37
Maine Governor	9/24	Rasmussen	Baldacci 44 Woodcock 39
Maryland Governor	9/24	Potomac	O'Malley 50 Ehrlich 44
Maryland Senate	9/24	Potomac	Cardin 51 Steele 40
Minnesota Senate	9/24	Mason-Dixon	Klobuchar 52 Kennedy 37
Montana Senate	9/24	Rasmussen	Tester 50 Burns 43
Nevada Governor	9/24	Mason-Dixon	Gibbons 45 Titus 36
Nevada District 2	9/24	Mason-Dixon	Heller 45 Derby 42
Nevada District 3	9/24	Mason-Dixon	Porter 47 Hafen 37
New Jersey Senate	9/24	Monmouth/ Gannett	Kean 44 Menendez 39
Oregon Governor	9/24	Rasmussen	Kulongoski 47 Saxton 38
Washington Senate	9/24	Rasmussen	Cantwell 48 McGavick 42
Wisconsin Governor	9/24	Rasmussen	Doyle 47 Green 44
Wisconsin Senate	9/24	Rasmussen	Kohl 60 Lorge 33

North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, and Oklahoma are on the new site. Also, OH-06 drops off the competitive race list.

Hello Everyone...

Edit by Tom: Sorry readers for changing the font size, the post for some reason was pushing the sidebar down.

My name is J. Ryan McNelis, I've recently been added to the group of people managing this site, and I'm honored to be here. In very short time, I hope to be helping out very constructively to ensure Tom is managing the best run election prediction site on the web.

In the meantime, I'd like to take a short moment for a small introduction, and possibly a little political commentary. I'm 27 years old, from Rhode Island with a BA in Biology and a Masters in Public Administration. I've been addicted to American politics since Newt's 1994 takeover of Congress. I'm a moderate that leans Democrat, occassionally more my liberal views will reveal themselves, but above all, I'm rational...and FULLY believe neither the Dems or the GOP has ALL the answers. (My posted views do not reflect Election Predictions views.)

Anyway, in a short response to Karen Blanton, on electoral fraud.

Electoral fraud is an age old tradition in American politics stretching ALL the way back to Washington himself. There are MANY ways to fix an election, and both sides are doing it EVERY year and for EVERY election.

"Legal" means include gerrymandering, creating new or excessive poll rules (forms of ID needed, etc), and an ESPECIALLY troublesome one of late...changing the sensitivity of polling machines. Whether a human or a computer...someone/thing has to count those votes. Making them count "chads" or neglect "chads" can SEVERELY influence poll results, either by illegally disenfranchising thousands or by allowing illegal votes to count.

"Illegal" means include having dead people vote (happens EVERYWHERE) and kicking people off voting rolls, as done in Florida's wide net sweep to kick felons off voting rolls, which nabbed many legal voters as well as felons.

Frustrating? -Yes.

But we should ALL vote anyway. Most of the time (98% or more) these schemes do not change the results enough to change the election. For these methods can only tip a result by about a point or so. In the end, yes Gore did win Florida....but to be fair, Kennedy stole the 1960 election from Nixon with the help of a Daley political machine of Chicago.

In the end, such electoral fraud cancels each other out.
So the imperfect system that our system is, runs well enough to still serve Democracy well.

Sunday Polling

Update (Tom): New Mexico and New York are now on the new site. NY-19 drops off the competitive list.

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Florida Governor	9/24	Research 2000	Crist 49 Davis 43
Illinois Governor	9/24	Mason-Dixon	Blagojevich 47 Topinka 37
Maryland Governor	9/24	Survey USA	O'Malley 50 Ehrlich 44
New Jersey Senate	9/24	Survey USA	Kean 44 Menendez 38
Ohio Governor	9/22	Columbus Dispatch	Strickland 52 Blackwell 33
Ohio Senate	9/22	Columbus Dispatch	Brown 47 DeWine 42
Pennsylvania Governor	9/24	Survey USA	Rendell 60 Swann 33
Pennsylvania Senate	9/24	Survey USA	Casey 49 Santorum 39

Update 2: New Jersey has been moved. Check back later for more state page updates/movements.

Update: Nebraska, Nevada, and New Hampshire have been moved over. Three races have dropped off the competitive list: MN-02, NH-01, and NH-02.

Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, and Montana are now on the new page.

Saturday Polling

Update 2 (Tom): Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Michigan are now on the new page.

Update (Tom): Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, and Louisiana are now moved to the new page.

Not much today, except I have a little bit of my own news. Inspired by Tom, I bought my own website (I'm 23, well past "minor" age). I will have all my state predictions moved to the new site by the end of September, as well as some of my other stuff on my two Blogger sites (general politics and looking to 2008). Everything should be moved to the new site by early October. My Blogger sites will be up for the rest of the 2006 election, and afterwards will become blank except to redirect visitors to my new site, http://californianintexas.us.

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Colorado Governor	9/20	Rasmussen	Ritter 50 Beauprez 34
Florida Governor	9/22	Research & Polling, Inc.	Crist 45 Davis 39
Massachusetts Governor	9/21	Survey USA	Patrick 64 Healey 25
Nebraska Governor	9/20	Rasmussen	Heineman 72 Hahn 18

Update: Illinois and Indiana are now on the new site.

Hawaii and Idaho are now up on the new site.

Georgia is also transferred.

Florida is now up on the new page. Also, Florida's 9th District race drops off the competitive list.

Update: Connecticut and Delaware are now on the new site.
Note: All state pages transferred to the new site have also been updated!

While this site is in the process of moving, why don't you check out the Weekly Projection Update over at Election Projection. Scott runs a great site and uses formulas to predict the outcomes of races. While you're there, why not sign up for his premium content? You can sign up for as little as $.01 it seems, though I am sure $5 is more an acceptable amount.

Update 2: California's 50th District has been moved out of the competitive column, while Colorado's 7th District has moved to a VERY WEAK GAIN for the Democrats.

Update: Arkansas and California are now linked to the new site. I am on a roll here! Hopefully I will complete the state page movement over the weekend. Also, can anyone explain to me how to make a picture that has multiple links in it? I need to put links onto the national overview maps. Thank you!!

I have transferred the first three state pages to the new site. There is a new state overview section on each of the pages. I will continue moving the state pages to that site tonight. If this is your first time here today, scroll down to see the daily polling posted by Sara.

Friday Polling

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Arkansas District 2	9/20	Survey USA	Snyder 56 Mayberry 42
Colorado District 4	9/20	Survey USA	Musgrave 46 Paccione 42
Delaware Senate	9/22	Farleigh- Dickinson	Carper 63 Ting 23
Georgia Governor	9/21	Insider Advantage	Perdue 52 Taylor 32
Kansas District 4	9/20	Survey USA	Tiahrt 63 McGinn 30
Minnesota Governor	9/20	Mason-Dixon	Pawlenty 42 Hatch 39
Minnesota Senate	9/22	Humphrey Institute	Klobuchar 52 Kennedy 36
Nevada Governor	9/20	Rasmussen	Gibbons 49 Titus 35
Nevada Senate	9/20	Rasmussen	Ensign 50 Carter 41
New Mexico District 1	9/20	Survey USA	Wilson 51 Madrid 46
Ohio Governor	9/20	Survey USA	Strickland 56 Blackwell 32
Ohio Senate	9/20	Survey USA	Brown 52 DeWine 42
Pennsylvania Governor	9/20	Rasmussen	Rendell 56 Swann 36
Pennsylvania Senate	9/20	Rasmussen	Casey 49 Santorum 39
Pennsylvania District 8	9/21	Grove Insight (D)	Fitzpatrick 43 Murphy 38
Vermont Senate	9/21	Research 2000	Sanders 58 Tarrant 33

Surprise readers! This site is moving to http://www.electionprediction.us. I have put up the main page and am in the process of transferring data. Entries will continue on this site until the transfer is complete. After that, this site will forward you to the new address. Sara, Brian, Ryan, and Scott please email me your full name, the display name you want for the new site, and your preferred user name. I will email you a password to access the new site after you send me this! Readers: Sara is currently working on Friday polling, so check back later for the polls. I will also look to see if any updates are in order for today.