Election Predictions

Election Predictions is Back

2008-03-19T13:31:00.002-04:00

It's about time. Anyway, after the move away from this site everything just got way too tiresome editing code and whatnot. In the next few days this site will be back up and running.

Site will be down until Saturday afternoon

2006-09-28T15:39:00.000-04:00

Looks like this site won't be transferring over the next couple days. It will have to wait until after the election. However, everything will continue on this site. I won't be able to transfer before the election because that means transferring alot of existing data. If I do it after the election, I can start over. Also, after the election this blog will continue operating as a blog. If you would like to join the team blog at Election Predictions after that let me know. It will continue under blog.electionprediction.us. The main site will be what is currently located here, but with a new template minus the blog format. If anyone is great at creating templates, let me know. The new site will need a nice one.

We're moving..

2006-09-25T17:44:00.000-04:00

All state pages have been transferred. Daily polling will now move to the new site. Soon, you will see maps with links to the state pages and new national overview pages. Once they are complete, the old site will just direct you here. Also, WY-AL drops off the competitive race list, and TX-17 becomes a WEAK RETENTION. This site will no longer be updated, so go to the new home of Election Predictions! (Brian, Scott, Ryan, and Sara let me know if you have trouble accessing the new site.)

This page will continue to host the trend pages, national maps and overviews until everything can be moved.

Monday Polling

2006-09-25T15:28:00.000-04:00

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Arizona District 8	9/24	Arizona Daily Star	Giffords 48 Graf 36
Florida Senate	9/24	Research 2000	Nelson 55 Harris 37
Maine Governor	9/24	Rasmussen	Baldacci 44 Woodcock 39
Maryland Governor	9/24	Potomac	O'Malley 50 Ehrlich 44
Maryland Senate	9/24	Potomac	Cardin 51 Steele 40
Minnesota Senate	9/24	Mason-Dixon	Klobuchar 52 Kennedy 37
Montana Senate	9/24	Rasmussen	Tester 50 Burns 43
Nevada Governor	9/24	Mason-Dixon	Gibbons 45 Titus 36
Nevada District 2	9/24	Mason-Dixon	Heller 45 Derby 42
Nevada District 3	9/24	Mason-Dixon	Porter 47 Hafen 37
New Jersey Senate	9/24	Monmouth/ Gannett	Kean 44 Menendez 39
Oregon Governor	9/24	Rasmussen	Kulongoski 47 Saxton 38
Washington Senate	9/24	Rasmussen	Cantwell 48 McGavick 42
Wisconsin Governor	9/24	Rasmussen	Doyle 47 Green 44
Wisconsin Senate	9/24	Rasmussen	Kohl 60 Lorge 33

2006-09-24T20:30:00.000-04:00

North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, and Oklahoma are on the new site. Also, OH-06 drops off the competitive race list.

Hello Everyone...

2006-09-24T18:13:00.000-04:00

Edit by Tom: Sorry readers for changing the font size, the post for some reason was pushing the sidebar down.

My name is J. Ryan McNelis, I've recently been added to the group of people managing this site, and I'm honored to be here. In very short time, I hope to be helping out very constructively to ensure Tom is managing the best run election prediction site on the web.

In the meantime, I'd like to take a short moment for a small introduction, and possibly a little political commentary. I'm 27 years old, from Rhode Island with a BA in Biology and a Masters in Public Administration. I've been addicted to American politics since Newt's 1994 takeover of Congress. I'm a moderate that leans Democrat, occassionally more my liberal views will reveal themselves, but above all, I'm rational...and FULLY believe neither the Dems or the GOP has ALL the answers. (My posted views do not reflect Election Predictions views.)

Anyway, in a short response to Karen Blanton, on electoral fraud.

Electoral fraud is an age old tradition in American politics stretching ALL the way back to Washington himself. There are MANY ways to fix an election, and both sides are doing it EVERY year and for EVERY election.

"Legal" means include gerrymandering, creating new or excessive poll rules (forms of ID needed, etc), and an ESPECIALLY troublesome one of late...changing the sensitivity of polling machines. Whether a human or a computer...someone/thing has to count those votes. Making them count "chads" or neglect "chads" can SEVERELY influence poll results, either by illegally disenfranchising thousands or by allowing illegal votes to count.

"Illegal" means include having dead people vote (happens EVERYWHERE) and kicking people off voting rolls, as done in Florida's wide net sweep to kick felons off voting rolls, which nabbed many legal voters as well as felons.

Frustrating? -Yes.

But we should ALL vote anyway. Most of the time (98% or more) these schemes do not change the results enough to change the election. For these methods can only tip a result by about a point or so. In the end, yes Gore did win Florida....but to be fair, Kennedy stole the 1960 election from Nixon with the help of a Daley political machine of Chicago.

In the end, such electoral fraud cancels each other out.
So the imperfect system that our system is, runs well enough to still serve Democracy well.

Sunday Polling

2006-09-24T14:28:00.000-04:00

Update (Tom): New Mexico and New York are now on the new site. NY-19 drops off the competitive list.

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Florida Governor	9/24	Research 2000	Crist 49 Davis 43
Illinois Governor	9/24	Mason-Dixon	Blagojevich 47 Topinka 37
Maryland Governor	9/24	Survey USA	O'Malley 50 Ehrlich 44
New Jersey Senate	9/24	Survey USA	Kean 44 Menendez 38
Ohio Governor	9/22	Columbus Dispatch	Strickland 52 Blackwell 33
Ohio Senate	9/22	Columbus Dispatch	Brown 47 DeWine 42
Pennsylvania Governor	9/24	Survey USA	Rendell 60 Swann 33
Pennsylvania Senate	9/24	Survey USA	Casey 49 Santorum 39

2006-09-24T11:12:00.000-04:00

Update 2: New Jersey has been moved. Check back later for more state page updates/movements.

Update: Nebraska, Nevada, and New Hampshire have been moved over. Three races have dropped off the competitive list: MN-02, NH-01, and NH-02.

Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, and Montana are now on the new page.

Saturday Polling

2006-09-23T19:38:00.000-04:00

Update 2 (Tom): Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Michigan are now on the new page.

Update (Tom): Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, and Louisiana are now moved to the new page.

Not much today, except I have a little bit of my own news. Inspired by Tom, I bought my own website (I'm 23, well past "minor" age). I will have all my state predictions moved to the new site by the end of September, as well as some of my other stuff on my two Blogger sites (general politics and looking to 2008). Everything should be moved to the new site by early October. My Blogger sites will be up for the rest of the 2006 election, and afterwards will become blank except to redirect visitors to my new site, http://californianintexas.us.

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Colorado Governor	9/20	Rasmussen	Ritter 50 Beauprez 34
Florida Governor	9/22	Research & Polling, Inc.	Crist 45 Davis 39
Massachusetts Governor	9/21	Survey USA	Patrick 64 Healey 25
Nebraska Governor	9/20	Rasmussen	Heineman 72 Hahn 18

2006-09-23T11:26:00.000-04:00

Update: Illinois and Indiana are now on the new site.

Hawaii and Idaho are now up on the new site.

2006-09-23T00:19:00.000-04:00

Georgia is also transferred.

Florida is now up on the new page. Also, Florida's 9th District race drops off the competitive list.

2006-09-22T21:21:00.000-04:00

Update: Connecticut and Delaware are now on the new site.
Note: All state pages transferred to the new site have also been updated!

While this site is in the process of moving, why don't you check out the Weekly Projection Update over at Election Projection. Scott runs a great site and uses formulas to predict the outcomes of races. While you're there, why not sign up for his premium content? You can sign up for as little as $.01 it seems, though I am sure $5 is more an acceptable amount.

2006-09-22T17:05:00.000-04:00

Update 2: California's 50th District has been moved out of the competitive column, while Colorado's 7th District has moved to a VERY WEAK GAIN for the Democrats.

Update: Arkansas and California are now linked to the new site. I am on a roll here! Hopefully I will complete the state page movement over the weekend. Also, can anyone explain to me how to make a picture that has multiple links in it? I need to put links onto the national overview maps. Thank you!!

I have transferred the first three state pages to the new site. There is a new state overview section on each of the pages. I will continue moving the state pages to that site tonight. If this is your first time here today, scroll down to see the daily polling posted by Sara.

Friday Polling

2006-09-22T14:30:00.000-04:00

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Arkansas District 2	9/20	Survey USA	Snyder 56 Mayberry 42
Colorado District 4	9/20	Survey USA	Musgrave 46 Paccione 42
Delaware Senate	9/22	Farleigh- Dickinson	Carper 63 Ting 23
Georgia Governor	9/21	Insider Advantage	Perdue 52 Taylor 32
Kansas District 4	9/20	Survey USA	Tiahrt 63 McGinn 30
Minnesota Governor	9/20	Mason-Dixon	Pawlenty 42 Hatch 39
Minnesota Senate	9/22	Humphrey Institute	Klobuchar 52 Kennedy 36
Nevada Governor	9/20	Rasmussen	Gibbons 49 Titus 35
Nevada Senate	9/20	Rasmussen	Ensign 50 Carter 41
New Mexico District 1	9/20	Survey USA	Wilson 51 Madrid 46
Ohio Governor	9/20	Survey USA	Strickland 56 Blackwell 32
Ohio Senate	9/20	Survey USA	Brown 52 DeWine 42
Pennsylvania Governor	9/20	Rasmussen	Rendell 56 Swann 36
Pennsylvania Senate	9/20	Rasmussen	Casey 49 Santorum 39
Pennsylvania District 8	9/21	Grove Insight (D)	Fitzpatrick 43 Murphy 38
Vermont Senate	9/21	Research 2000	Sanders 58 Tarrant 33

2006-09-22T11:03:00.000-04:00

Surprise readers! This site is moving to http://www.electionprediction.us. I have put up the main page and am in the process of transferring data. Entries will continue on this site until the transfer is complete. After that, this site will forward you to the new address. Sara, Brian, Ryan, and Scott please email me your full name, the display name you want for the new site, and your preferred user name. I will email you a password to access the new site after you send me this! Readers: Sara is currently working on Friday polling, so check back later for the polls. I will also look to see if any updates are in order for today.

2006-09-21T18:28:00.000-04:00

No race changes today. Look for some tomorrow.

Wednesday and Thursday Polling

2006-09-21T09:47:00.000-04:00

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Arizona Senate	9/18	Rasmussen	Kyl 50 Pederson 39
Connecticut Senate	9/15-9/19	American Res. Group	Lieberman 47Lamont 45
Illinois Governor	9/17-9/19	SurveyUSA	Blagojevich 45Topinka 39
Maine Governor	9/18	Rasmussen	Baldacci 44 Woodcock 39
Maryland Governor	9/17-9/19	SurveyUSA	O'Malley 51 Ehrlich 44
Maryland Senate	9/17-9/19	SurveyUSA	Steele 48 Cardin 47
Michigan Governor	9/15-9/17	Strategic Vision (R)	Granholm 47DeVos 46
Michigan Senate	9/15-9/17	Strategic Vision (R)	Stabenow 51 Bouchard 44
Minnesota Governor	9/13-9/18	Univ. of Minnesota	Hatch 44 Pawlenty 42
New Jersey Senate	9/13-9/18	Quinnipiac	Kean 48 Menendez 45
Ohio-02	9/17-9/19	SurveyUSA	Schmidt 45 Wulsin 42
Ohio Governor	9/7-917	University of Cincinnati	Strickland 50Blackwell 38
Ohio Senate	9/11-9/17	Quinnipiac	Brown 45 DeWine 44
Ohio Senate	9/7-917	University of Cincinnati	Brown 51DeWine 47
Oregon Governor	9/18	Rasmussen	Kulongoski 47Saxton 38
Pennsylvania Governor	9/20	Rasmussen	Rendell 56 Swann 36
Pennsylvania Governor	9/13-9/18	Keystone Poll	Rendell 52Swann 34
Pennsylvania Senate	9/20	Rasmussen	Casey 49Santorum 39
Pennsylvania Senate	9/13-9/18	Keystone Poll	Casey 45Santorum 38
Rhode Island Senate	9/15-9/19	American Res. Group	Whitehouse 45Chafee 40
South Carolina Governor	9/17-9/19	SurveyUSA	Sanford 54Moore 41
Vermont-AL	9/18-9/19	Reasearch 2000	Welch 45Rainville 39
Wisconsin Governor	9/15-9/17	Strategic Vision (R)	Doyle 46Green 42

2006-09-20T16:56:00.000-04:00

I regret to inform Election Predictions readers that this site will not be moving before Election Day. I transferred the domain to the new server where I can easily customize the site, but since the domain was registered only a day ago I am required to wait 60 days to transfer it to the new host. However, this means that I have more time to devote to this site, and after the election I can focus on moving the site for 2007 and 2008.

Unfortunately, I am extremely busy over the next few days. I will not be able to post as often, and daily polling may or may not be up tomorrow and Friday. Additionally, I am having tons of trouble trying to start the new website. I am unable it seems to start with a blank page and not a 'customizable' template. As a result, I cannot figure out how to put advertising space or projection totals on the sidebar. Anyone know a good blog hosting service I can transfer the domain to?

2006-09-20T14:58:00.000-04:00

Washington and Massachusetts pages are updated.

I am currently updating the state pages of Massachusetts and Washington following the primaries.

Maryland: Finally, Some Polls

2006-09-20T13:21:00.000-04:00

The Democratic trend in the Old Line State continues...

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Maryland Governor	9/19	Rasmussen	O'Malley 49Ehrlich 42
Maryland Senate	9/19	Rasmussen	Cardin 50Steele 43

KY-04: New Poll

2006-09-20T11:15:00.000-04:00

In Kentucky's 4th District, we see another poll showing Lucas in the lead. A previous poll had shown Davis ahead, but earlier polls also had Lucas in the lead:

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Kentucky-04	9/16-9/18	SurveyUSA	Lucas 48Davis 44

Daily polling will be up later, along with any needed race rating changes.

Election Predictions is Moving!

2006-09-19T23:06:00.000-04:00

I am happy to inform our readers here at Election Predictions that this site will be moving to its own domain: www.electionpredictions.us. It will take me a week or so to configure the new site. In the meantime, you can continue to be updated on this site. Get ready for some new features!

Thursday Polling On A Tuesday...

2006-09-19T11:31:00.000-04:00

I'll be on vacation from Thursday, September 21st until Monday, October 2nd, so I figured I'd contribute while I can. The biggest pieces of news here are the significant tightening in the Connnecticut Senate race, the impending blowout in the Ohio Governor's race, and the possibility of Katherine Harris' congressional seat turning blue.

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Connecticut Senate	9/19	Rasmussen	Lieberman 45Lamont 43Schlesinger 5
OhioGovernor	9/19	Quinnipiac	Strickland 55Blackwell 34
Indiana-02	9/18	South Bend Tribune	Donnelly 50Chocola 42
Arizona-05	9/18	SurveyUSA	Hayworth 52Mitchell 40
Michigan Senate	9/18	SurveyUSA	Stabenow 54Bouchard 41
Michigan Governor	9/18	SurveyUSA	Granholm 47DeVos 47
Colorado-03	9/18	SurveyUSA	Salazar 52Tipton 41
Florida-13	9/19	Ham. Beattie (D)	Jennings 46Buchanan 38

The state pages for these races have been updated. I'll see you guys in a week or so. Take care!

Republicans Retain Majority: One Shifts

2006-09-19T10:47:00.000-04:00

Today we have a new poll released in Minnesota's 6th Congressional District, which reaffirms that Republicans are going to retain this seat as currently projected:

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Minnesota-06	9/18	SurveyUSA	Bachmann 50Wetterling 41

WI-08: This shifts to a VERY WEAK RETENTION for the GOP.

Daily polling will be up later.

Republican House Incumbents: Good News

2006-09-18T15:36:00.000-04:00

Update 2: This site is horriby behind in integrating polls into the state pages. Scott has been unable to join the Election Predictions team due to Blogger problems, and it is a lot of work. Brian and Sara, if you are willing to put some polls into the state pages 9/11, 9/12, 9/15, and today's polling data all need to be included. I integrated more than half of 9/11's polling already. Thanks alot, and sorry to our readers.

Here are three House polls released today in supposedly competitive Republican districts:

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
NH-01	9/12-9/13	Research 2000	Bradley 56Porter 31
NH-02	9/12-9/13	Research 2000	Bass 53Hodes 30
PA-07	9/12-9/13	Public Opinion Strategies (R)	Weldon 52Sestak 33

I highly doubt that Weldon is winning by such a large margin in Pennsylvania's 7th District. Other polls have shown them virtually tied, and a Republican polling firm won't change that rating in my mind. However, the New Hampshire polls are of note.

NH-02: This race moves to a WEAK RETENTION for the Republicans.

Update: I know I posted this over the weekend, but the bulk of this sites traffic occurs over the course of the week. Don't worry, this is the last time you will have to read this phooey:

I really want to be able to move this site to its own domain name this year. Network Solutions offers the entire hosting package for $26.94 to register and host http://www.electionpredictions.us/. In order to make this site sustainable, I would need to offer advertising spots in order to generate $14.95 a month after the initial set up fee. I think that is quite doable. However, because I am still a minor, (I will be 18 before Election Day), I have no way to pay for the site and legally am not allowed to put up advertising and generate income until mid-October. (I can't even set up a PayPal to accept donations to fund the move.) Just letting readers know the situation. If someone wants to buy the domain for $26.94 and transfer it to us here at Election Predictions, I will reimburse you after the election! If you would like to help out you can email me at electionpredictions@yahoo.com. What a unique domain would bring:

Nicer tables
Interactive maps
Better presentation
More features!
Bullets that actually appear on the page!

Montana: Bluer By The Day?

2006-09-18T13:00:00.000-04:00

It's starting to look that way, with this new poll of the state's much-anticipated Senate race.

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
MontanaSenate	9/13	Rasmussen	Tester 52Burns 43

Question of the day: What's the best movie you've seen over the last year?

I'm going with "Little Miss Sunshine"...

Monday Polling

2006-09-18T04:00:00.000-04:00

Every state that has had primaries now has money tables of the Senate and competitive House races. When I post polls next weekend, I will have the money data for Washington, Massachusetts, and Hawaii tabulated also.

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Iowa Governor	9/16	Selzer & Co.	Culver 44%, Nussle 44%
Iowa District 1	9/16	Selzer & Co.	Braley 44%, Whalen 37%
Minnesota Governor	9/15	Minneapolis Star-Tribune	Hatch 42%, Pawlenty 42%
Minnesota Senate	9/15	Minneapolis Star-Tribune	Klobuchar 56%, Kennedy 32%
Nevada Governor	9/8	Research 2000	Gibbons 45%, Titus 38%
New Hampshire Governor	9/15	Research 2000	Lynch 61%, Coburn 24%
Ohio Senate	9/13	Rasmussen	Brown 47%, DeWine 41%
Rhode Island Governor	9/13	Rasmussen	Carcieri 47%, Fogarty 45%
Rhode Island Senate	9/13	Rasmussen	Whitehouse 51%, Chafee 43%

Election Predictions moving to its own site?

2006-09-17T14:29:00.000-04:00

Update: If you would like to help out you can email me at electionpredictions@yahoo.com.

I really want to be able to move this site to its own domain name this year. Network Solutions offers the entire hosting package for $26.94 to register and host www.electionpredictions.us. In order to make this site sustainable, I would need to offer advertising spots in order to generate $14.95 a month after the initial set up fee. I think that is quite doable. However, because I am still a minor, (I will be 18 before Election Day), I have no way to pay for the site and legally am not allowed to put up advertising and generate income until mid-October. Therefore, I will probably have to wait until the next election cycle to move to a unique domain for Election Predictions. (I can't even set up a PayPal to accept donations to fund the move.) Just letting readers know the situation. I don't know if there is any way to get around this situation, unless someone wants to buy the domain for $26.94 and transfer it to us here at Election Predictions! Once this site starts generating revenue and I am old enough to open a PayPal account, I can easily reimburse you. Anyway, I am integrating polls still from this month. Sara is doing money tables, and they look really nice.

Update: I forgot to mention the benefits of a unique domain:

Nicer tables
Interactive maps
Better presentation
More features!
Bullets that actually appear on the page!

2006-09-16T23:15:00.000-04:00

Sara is currently adding campaign cash tables to the state pages, and she is cranking them out like a machine. I on the other hand am taking a long time integrating polling data. I will do some more tomorrow.

UPDATE (2:50 AM): Just finished updating Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, and Florida with the money tables. Look for all state pages to be updated by Sunday night or Monday.

UPDATE II (11:12 AM): Every state (with Senate and/or competitive House races) through Maryland has tables.

- Sara

Saturday Polling (or lack thereof)

2006-09-16T20:38:00.000-04:00

I didn't find any new polls today except some from Rasmussen that are currently available only for premium users (of which I am not) for Senate (Montana, Connecticut, Ohio, Maryland; New Mexico) and Governor (Maryland, New Mexico). Look for those to be put up tomorrow or Monday.

UPDATE (8:51 PM): With no new polls to work with, that at least frees up some time for me to incorporate the money tables into the Senate and House races.

2006-09-16T00:12:00.000-04:00

I will spend all my updating time today integrating polls into the state pages. There must be at least 50 polls that need to be included. Sara and Brian, if you would like to help out just let me know what day's polling you will add. Polling from 9/15, 9/14, and 9/11 needs to be integrated.

Friday Polling

2006-09-15T17:08:00.000-04:00

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Florida Governor	9/13	Survey USA	Crist 49%, Davis 41%
Florida Senate	9/13	Survey USA	Nelson 53%, Harris 38%
Maine Governor	9/12	Survey USA	Baldacci 42%, Woodcock 41%
Michigan Governor	9/13	EPIC/MRI	Granholm 50%, DeVos 42%
Michigan Senate	9/12	EPIC/MRI	Stabenow 53%, Bouchard 34%
Tennessee Governor	9/11	Survey USA	Bredesen 63%, Bryson 30%
Texas Governor	9/11	Rasmussen	Perry 33%, Strayhorn 22%, Bell 18%, Friedman 16%
Vermont Governor	9/14	American Research Group	Douglas 59%, Parker 32%
Vermont Senate	9/14	American Research Group	Sanders 55%, Tarrant 40%
Vermont District At Large	9/14	American Research Group	Welsh 48%, Rainville 45%

Colorado Governor's Race Coming Clearer...

2006-09-15T12:08:00.000-04:00

When a poll released by a Republican polling outfit shows a once-close race being led by the Democratic candidate by 17 points, it might be time to put this one in the "Solid Gain" category...

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Colorado Governor	9/10-12	Public Opinion Strategies (R)	Ritter 50Beauprez 33

I've got a quick question for the EP readership that I posed at my site:

If the Democrats take control of Congress in November, do you think any Republicans will switch parties to stay in the majority a la Ben Nighthorse Campbell in 1994? If so, which ones will make the jump?

2006-09-15T11:49:00.000-04:00

Check back later today for daily polling by Sara and a few race updates from me.

Thursday Polling

2006-09-14T20:45:00.000-04:00

Earlier today, Brian and I posted four House polls from Indiana. Additionally, I updated the race ratings for 12 races. Two moved to the Democrats while one moved to the Republicans. Overall, 10 moved in favor of the Democrats versus 2 to the Republicans. I will try and update some races every day. I really want to pick up where some of election sites went premium left off. My goal is to provide a free alternative that is just as accurate and just as informative. If you would like to help out by linking here, please do so. Consider it a donation to this site. Here is the daily polling:

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
California-50	9/10-9/12	SurveyUSA	Bilbray 54 Busby 40
Iowa-03	9/8	KCCI	Boswell 52Lamberti 41
Iowa Governor	9/8	KCCI	Culver 48Nussle 43
Kansas Governor	9/11-9/13	SurveyUSA	Sebelius 58Barnett 38
Missouri Senate	9/11-9/13	SurveyUSA	McCaskill 48Talent 47
Missouri Senate	9/11	Rasmussen	McCaskill 45 Talent 42
Montana Senate	9/12	Rasmussen	Tester 52Burns 43
New Jersey Senate	9/8-9/10	Strategic Vision	Kean 44Menendez 40
Virginia Senate	9/11	Rasmussen	Allen 50Webb 43

Republicans cruising getting hammered in Indiana.

2006-09-14T10:05:00.000-04:00

Three polls by Constituent Dynamics have Democrats leading in all three competitive Indiana House Districts.

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Indiana-02	9/8-9/10	Constituent Dynamics	Donnelly 52,Chocola 40
Indiana-08	9/8-9/10	Constituent Dynamics	Ellsworth 51, Hostettler 45
Indiana-09	9/8-9/10	Constituent Dynamics	Hill 53,Sodrel 42

Another Democratic Pickup In Indiana?

2006-09-14T09:13:00.000-04:00

The latest poll in one of the three potential blue pickups in Indiana...

Race	Date	Polling Company	Results
Indiana-08	9/14	Research2000	Ellsworth 44Hostettler 40

National Political Movement Since 1988: A Wake-up Call for Republicans

2006-03-28T16:51:00.000-05:00

Part of my mission in making this website was to analyze political movement in each state. I have compiled state percentages for each candidate (Democrat and Republican) since 1988. I will briefly explain how I come about my conclusions before I reveal them.

1. First, the % of the vote received by the Republican candidate is subtracted from the % of the vote received by the Democratic candidate. We will use Virginia as an example:

Percent Dukakis: 39.23
Percent Bush: 59.74
(Percent Dukakis)-(Percent Bush)=(Percent Democratic Margin)
Percent Democratic Margin: -20.51

2. Now, in order to eliminate the variable of which candidate wins nationally, we need to measure this percent zeroed on the national margin:

Percent Democratic Margin (Virginia): -20.51
Percent Democratic Margin (National): -7.72
Percent Democratic Margin (Virginia, adjusted to reflect National margin): -12.79

Therefore, Virginia voted 12.79% more Republican than the nation as a whole in 1988.

3. The same percentage is computed for every following election up to 2004. Virginia's numbers are as follows:

Percent Democratic Margin 1988: -12.79
Percent Democratic Margin 1992: -9.94
Percent Democratic Margin 1996: -10.46
Percent Democratic Margin 2000: -8.03
Percent Democratic Margin 2004: -5.74

4. As you can see, the margin that Virginia has voted Republican as compared to the nation has decreased since 1988. In order to find the rate of movement towards the Democrats, we average the results of all 5 years to get an average of -9.49%. To find the rate of movement to the Democrats, we subtract the average margin from the margin in 2004 to get the percent trend to the Democrats.

(Democratic Margin in 2004)-(Average Democratic Margin)= (Percent Democrat Movement)
Percent Democrat Movement (Since 1988) = 3.75

As we can see, Virginia is moving at a fairly quick pace towards the Democrats, which is supported by known political shifts of exurbs and suburbs in Northern Virginia and the state as a whole.

Based on calculations for all 50 states and the District of Columbia, we can place these states in three categories: (Trending Republican), (Trending Democrat), or (Steady). If a state is moving at a rate of 1% or less we will categorize it as steady in political movement, just in case of inaccuracies in calculations (rounding). I will list the number of Electoral Votes a state has in parenthesis next to it, and the state is color coded according to the party it voted for in 2004.

Trending Democrat (EVs) .Trending GOP(EVs) Steady (EVs)

California (55) ......................Alabama (9).............Alaska (3)
Colorado (9) .........................Arkansas (6)............Arizona (10)
Connecticut (7).....................Georgia (15).............Minnesota (10)
Delaware (3).........................Hawaii (4)................New Mexico (5)
D.C. (3)...................................Idaho (4).................North Carolina (15)
Florida (27)............................Indiana (11)............South Carolina (8)
Illinois (21).............................Iowa (7)...................Wisconsin (10)
Maine (4)......... .....................Kansas (6)
Maryland (10)...................... Kentucky (8)
Massachusetts (12)..............Louisiana (9)
Michigan (17).........................Mississippi (6)
Washington (11)....................Missouri (11)
Nevada (5).............................Montana (3)
New Hampshire (4)..............Nebraska (5)
New Jersey (15)....................North Dakota (3)
New York (31).......................Oklahoma (7)
Ohio (20)................................South Dakota (3)
Oregon (7)..............................Tennessee (11)
Pennsylvania (21).................Texas (34)
Rhode Island (4)....................Utah (5)
Vermont (3)...........................West Virginia (5)
Virginia (13)...........................Wyoming (3)

Total EVs: 302............... Total EVs: 175................Total EVs: 61

The states moving leftwards, while the same in number same as the number moving rightward, possess 72.5% more electoral votes. Some may argue that 'recent political trends' have altered the movement of some states, but in order to get a true picture we must look at the long term picture. There are many problems with only looking at two or three presidential elections. For example, Clinton carried his home state of Arkansas in 1992 and 1996 and increased the Democratic margin in that state. As soon as Clinton was off the ballot, Arkansas went back to it's original Republican trend. If data from 1992-2004 or 1996-2004 is used, the political shift of Arkansas will appear more significant than it actually has been. This effect will briefly alter political trends in the home states of Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates. Using data over longer periods helps reduce this effect.

I am not suggesting that in 2008 the Democrats will receive 302+ electoral votes. Rather, I am suggesting that in 2016 and beyond, if Republicans don't focus on moving some of those population heavy states into their column, they are set to lose presidential election after presidential election. If the states that remain steady in trending are distributed to the side that they went for in 2004, the disparity is slightly smaller, but the Democrats still have a large advantage. Unfortunately for Republicans, the states gaining population faster, and thus more Electoral Votes, are almost evenly split between the sides. These long term trends bode ill for Republicans and should serve as a wake-up call.

Great Lakes Regional Trend

2006-01-22T16:27:00.000-05:00

Great Lakes states are: Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Ohio. I am not including Indiana is this region because politically it fits more with Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia, what I would call the Appalachian region. Every one of the Great Lakes states is moving leftward, especially Ohio. Ohio is the only state that has consistently voted Republican since the 1980s, with the exception of Bill Clinton. This region's Democratic base is mostly unionized workers. Detroit, home of the Big Three, is the center of this union region. Increasingly, free trade with countries like China and Japan have been spawning job losses in this largely manufacturing region, built up on the great trade opportunities the Great Lakes afford. This leads the population of the area to be more protectionist and less pro-free trade. Free trade incarnate is the Republican party. This economic 'libertarianism', while possibly benefiting society as a whole, has been felt extensively throught the region. Now, Democrats aren't necessarily protectionist, but their opposition to pacts like CAFTA and NAFTA and the free trade agreement with China due to unfair labor practices and regulation have drawn support from people in these states. The boom in immigrants hasn't affected this region nearly as much as other regions of the country. In Ohio moreso than the other regions, social issues are not any part of the reason for the leftward trend. Ohio is the only state in the country with an enforceable ban on an abortion procedure, and voters there recently approved a ban on gay marriage. In Ohio, the Democrats could hurt partisan shifts by stressing social liberties that Ohioans don't have an affinity for. The other states in the region are all more socially liberal than Ohio, and the 'religious right' will not be able to substantially slow the leftward movement. Economic populism is the main cause of the leftward shift, along with environmentalism, and, to some extent, social issues in Minnesota, Michigan, and Illinois. For the Republicans to start winning these states over, the party needs to take a look at its economic platform. While conservatives dominate the government right now, they should take notice that more states are moving leftward than rightward, and those leftward moving states are the ones that will yield significant electoral power as population trends shape the face of the country.

West Coast Regional Trend

2006-01-19T16:44:00.000-05:00

The West Coast states are, you guessed it, California, Oregon, and Washington. All three states are continuing their leftward trend. California's quick leftward movement can be attributed to the large influx of minorities to the state. Furthermore, almost all population growth in California has been around the major cities. These areas are heavily trending to the Democrats. Maybe this is because all the liberals are flocking to California, but that is probably just Republican hope. In fact, Californian Republicans are more fiscally conservative than socially, aka Reagan Democrats. The Republican party's increasing emphasis on social issues has swung these voters towards the Democratic side. An influence on social values could be partially attributed to Hollywood and it's liberal-ness. Up and down the West Coast, however, the trend towards the Democrats cannot be explained by an influx of minorities and Hollywood. The biggest influence on trend has been the environmental movement. These three western states have been the most ambitious towards achieving environmental goals, especially California and Washington. Sustainable development is all the rage in the Northwest, and the Bush administration's, and other Republicans, staunch opposition to any environmental laws that impede development has pushed these voters away from them. The conservative argument would be that you are infringing on the rights of the people by making these laws. However, West Coast residents are rebuking them by saying: we should have the right to be free from sprawl, excessive air pollution, and have the right to have a clean environment that benefits the economy, our health, peace of mind, tourism, and future generations. Republicans that have been elected recently on the West Coast, if you notice, have been more pro-environment than the average Republican. As the Democratic party continues to make the environment an important issue, more West Coast voters will leave the Republican party. I don't see the Republicans ever taking back these three states, unless they clean up their environmental act. They could also stop hammering social issues. For example, Oregon has an assisted suicide law that was just ruled as trumping federal law. While you may not agree with assisted suicide, you can evidence from that the mindset of West Coaster's in terms of social issues. These states also have some of the most abortion friendly medical laws. Out of California's 36 Republican counties, 17 of them are trending Democrat. Out of California's 22 Democratic counties, only 4 of them are trending Republican. Out of Oregon's 27 GOP counties, 23 are trending Democrat. Not one of its 8 Democratic counties are moving rightward. Finally, out of Washington's 28 Republican counties, 25 are trending Democrat. One out of it's 13 Democratic counties are moving rightward. This region is a safe haven for Democrats and will only grow safer.

Southwest Regional Trend

2006-01-17T16:40:00.000-05:00

Southwestern states are: Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. Based on voting patterns since 1992, 2 of these states are within the margin for trending, one is trending Republican and one is trending Democrat. However, if you compare data going from the 2000 election to the 2004 election, Texas and New Mexico are trending slightly to the Democrats while Arizona is slighting trending rightward. Nevada is clearly trending towards the Democrats in both analysis, and Nevada is the fastest leftward moving state out of the current red states. All of these states are seeing booming minority, specifically Hispanic, population increases. These voters are starting to move leftward, especially second and third generation immigrants that aren't as religious as the first generation. Texas is the most red state in terms of population, and it is seeing more of its counties trending towards the Democrats than towards the Republicans. 12 out of Nevada's 16 counties are moving leftward at a fairly quick pace. As the population of Hispanic voters continues to increase, these Southwestern states will continue their trend. The GOP is beating itself on the head in this region because of its anti-immigrant tones. The Republican party will continue to alienate voters who may be more socially inclined to side with their party by taking the hard-core anti-immigrant stance to appease its other base. I think the Republican party has grown to large to appease all its constituent bases, and the Southwest will continue to trend Democratically, especially if the Democrats continue their move to a more Populist platform.

House Projections Map

2006-01-01T21:16:00.000-05:00

House Projections Map

Governor Projections Map

2006-01-01T21:15:00.000-05:00

Governor Projections Map

Senate Projections Map

2006-01-01T21:13:00.000-05:00

Senate Projections Map

National Overview - House

2006-01-01T17:46:00.000-05:00

Note: Name listed next to the seat is the Incumbent, not the projected winner.

Republicans

Weak Retention - Total: 12

J.D. Hayworth, Arizona District 5
No Incumbent, Florida District 13
Ron Lewis, Kentucky District 2
Anne Northup, Kentucky District 3
Tim Walz, Minnesota District 1
Michael Ferguson, New Jersey District 7
John Sweeney, New York District 20
Randy Kuhl, New York District 29
No Incumbent, Nevada District 2
Mike Fitzpatrick, Pennsylvania District 8
Henry Bonilla, Texas District 23
Barbara Cubin, Wyoming AL District

Very Weak Retention - Total: 15

Richard Pombo, California District 11
Mariyln Musgrave, Colorado District 4
Christopher Shays, Connecticut District 4
Nancy Johnson, Connecticut District 5
Clay Shaw, Florida District 22
No Incumbent, Illinois District 6
No Incumbent, Minnesota District 6
Heather Wilson, New Mexico District 1
Robin Hayes, North Carolina District 8
Steve Chabot, Ohio District 1
Deborah Pryce, Ohio District 15
Curt Weldon, Pennsylvania District 7
Don Sherwood, Pennsylvania District 10
Dave Reichert, Washington District 8
No Incumbent, Wisconsin District 8

Democrats

Weak Retention - Total: 3

John Salazar, Colorado District 3
Leonard Boswell, Iowa District 3
Charlie Melancon, Louisiana District 3

Very Weak Retention - Total: 4

Jim Marshall, Georgia District 8
John Barrows, Georgia District 12
Melissa Bean, Illinois District 8
Chet Edwards, Texas District 17

Very Weak Gain - Total: 8

No Incumbent, Colorado District 7
Rob Simmons, Connecticut District 2
Geoff Davis, Kentucky District 4
No Incumbent, New York District 24
Charles Taylor, North Carolina District 11
Robert Ney, Ohio District 18
Jim Gerlach, Pennsylvania District 6
Thelma Drake, Virginia District 2

Weak Gain - Total: 7

No Incumbent, Arizona District 8
Chris Chocola, Indiana District 2
John Hostettler, Indiana District 8
Mike Sodrel, Indiana District 9
No Incumbent, Iowa District 1
No Incumbent, Texas District 22
No Incumbent, Vermont District 1

Northeast Regional Trend

2006-01-01T17:37:00.000-05:00

All Northeastern states are quite similiar in political trends. Based on voting patterns since 1992, the Northeast is moving to the Democrats. The Northeast is by far the most liberal region of the country. The most logical explanation for the leftist leanings of the Northeast is the fact that it is the most urban region of the country. This may explain voter's general affinity towards the Democrats. Cities like New York, Philadelphia, Boston, Pittsburgh, Hartford, etc., have large populations in the city and in the surrounding areas which account for most of the population of the Northeast. Many Northeastern states are seeing increasing Hispanic and minority populations. The Northeast rivals the West Coast in terms of concern over the environment. This plays a large part in the election of Republican moderates like Lincoln Chafee. While the Northeast has recently seen a decline in population as a percentage, I believe this trend will reverse. Numerous large Northeastern cities, Philadelphia being the greatest example, are undergoing a revitalization not seen in decades. The appeal of living in the city is increasing, with more people returning to Philadelphia and moving there to start. Once water problems in the Southwest reach critical levels, the Northeast will see a robust increase in population. There is no forseeable trend towards the Republicans anytime soon. While an explanation of the roots of Northeastern ideals would be lengthy and time consuming, there is no doubt that these opinions on issues like abortion are steadfast. Unless the Republican and Democratic parties switch roles, expect the Northeast to continue to move leftward. Just like in the Mid-Atlantic, outlying suburbs of major cities have been voting increasingly Democratic, though suburbs historically have been more favorable to Republicans. Economic populism may be the key in the turn to the Democrats. The Republicans have no chance of coming back in the Northeast. Presidentially, more states are trending Democratic than Republican. Furthermore, no Democratic states are moving rightward. The Republicans will have a tough time winning in the future if the Eastern seaboard continues its leftward lunge.

Mid-Atlantic Regional Trend

2006-01-01T17:23:00.000-05:00

North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania constitute the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. New Jersey and Pennsylvania are borderline Northeast and Midatlantic. All of these states are trending Democrat. This region, along with the Northeast, is growing more socially liberal. While many new Democrats are still fairly moderate economically and socially, the GOP is taking an increasingly socially conservative stance and has not been staying true to its economically conservative roots. Northern Virginia is moving heavily to the Democrats, while western North Carolina is moving to the Democrats (even though it is still staunchly conservative). The suburbs around the major cities on the East coast have been trending Democratic lately, contrary to the general Republican-ness of outlying suburbs. Virginia ranks 3rd among Republican states in terms of movement to the Democrats after Nevada and Colorado. North Carolina ranks 8th. The main shift in political attitudes here has been towards Populist beliefs. Increasingly, the Democrats have been the more populist party in the area. The Democrats here are more conservative socially than in the Northeast, and their economic beliefs are more in tune with voters here. The Republicans will continue to lose this region unless they start becoming a more Populist party, rather than being conservative.

National Overview - Senate

2006-01-01T17:13:00.000-05:00

Note: Name listed next to the seat is the Incumbent, not the projected winner.

Republicans

Solid Retention - Total: 7

Dick Lugar, Indiana
Olympia Snowe, Maine
Trent Lott, Mississippi
John Ensign, Nevada
Kay Bailey Hutchinson, Texas
Orrin Hatch, Utah
Craig Thomas, Wyoming

Moderate Retention - Total: 1

John Kyl, Arizona

Very Weak Retention - Total: 3

Jim Talent, Missouri
No Incumbent, Tennessee
George Allen, Virginia

Democrats

Solid Retention - Total: 10

Dianne Fienstein, California
Tom Carper, Delaware
Daniel Akaka, Hawaii
Ed Kennedy, Massachusetts
Ben Nelson, Nebraska
Jeff Bingaman, New Mexico
Hillary Clinton, New York
Kent Conrad, North Dakota
Robert Byrd, West Virginia
Herb Kohl, Wisconsin

Moderate Retention - Total: 2

Bill Nelson, Florida
Debbie Stabenow, Michigan

Weak Retention - Total: 3

No Incumbent, Maryland
No Incumbent, Minnesota
Maria Cantwell, Washington

Very Weak Retention - Total: 1

Robert Menendez, New Jersey

Very Weak Gain - Total: 2

Mike DeWine, Ohio
Lincoln Chafee, Rhode Island

Weak Gain - Total: 2

Conrad Burns, Montana
Rick Santorum, Pennsylvania

Independents

Solid Retention - Total:1

No Incumbent, Vermont

Weak Gain - Total: 1

Joe Lieberman, Connecticut

National Overview - Governor

2006-01-01T10:31:00.000-05:00

Note: Name listed next to the seat is the Incumbent, not the projected winner.

Republicans

Solid Retention - Total: 6

Jodi Rell, Connecticut
Linda Lingle, Hawaii
No Incumbent, Idaho
Dave Heineman, Nebraska
Mike Rounds, South Dakota
Jim Douglas, Vermont

Moderate Retention - Total: 3

Sonny Perdue, Georgia
Mark Sanford, South Carolina
Rick Perry, Texas

Weak Retention - Total: 2

Bob Riley, Alabama
Frank Murkowski, Alaska

Very Weak Retention - Total: 4

Arnold Schwarzenegger, California
No Incumbent, Florida
Tim Pawlenty, Minnesota
No Incumbent, Nevada

Democrats

Solid Retention - Total: 4

Janet Napolitano, Arizona
John Lynch, New Hampshire
Bill Richardson, New Mexico
Phil Bredesen, Tennessee

Moderate Retention - Total: 3

Bob Henry, Oklahoma
Ed Rendell, Pennsylvania
Dave Freudenthal, Wyoming

Weak Retention - Total: 4

Rod Blagojevich, Illinois
Kathleen Sebelius, Kansas
John Baldacci, Maine
James Doyle, Wisconsin

Very Weak Retention - Total: 3

No Incumbent, Iowa
Jennifer Granholm, Michigan
Ted Kulongoski, Oregon

Very Weak Gain - Total: 3

No Incumbent, Colorado
Bob Ehrlich, Maryland
Donald Carcieri, Rhode Island

Weak Gain - Total: 1

No Incumbent, Massachusetts

Moderate Gain - Total: 2

No Incumbent, Arkansas
No Incumbent, Ohio

Solid Gain - Total: 1

No Incumbent, New York